Stephen Ferris’ surprise prediction for #RWC23
IN THE SPOTLIGHT: Former Ireland and Ulster legend Stephen Ferris believes Ireland will go all the way to the Final, but South Africa will edge them to retain their World Cup title.
Ferris believes Ireland will top their group and ultimately make it all the way to the final, mainly because he trusts Ireland coach Andy Farrell to guide the Irish, but they will come up against a strong Springbok side.
Pool A: France à conquérir
“France will win the opening game and then the group, but to be honest I don’t want New Zealand to win here, because then they’ll finish second and end up facing Ireland in the quarterfinals.
Even though France won’t have some key players [Romain Ntamack], they still have a big enough squad to dip into, and the occasion will be perfect for them. I know that France has only beaten the All Blacks once in recent years – and they always seem to have their number – but thanks mainly to the home advantage, I still think they’ll do it.
Unless you’ve played at the highest level, you just won’t understand what it feels like to run out at a World Cup, with that support and atmosphere all around you. On top of this, it gets the adrenaline pumping through your veins, giving you an extra 10 points mentally and an extra 10% in everything you do.
People don’t believe in fairy tales, but France is at home, it’s their own World Cup and they’ll be beating one of the big favourites; It’ll just set the tournament alight and give a lot of other teams hope too.”
Pool B: The Farrell influence
“This path for Ireland is crucial for them in terms of the draw for the knockout stages, so I’m saying they’ll top the group. I think it’s the way Ireland play and their pace puts them in good stead here, as most teams can’t cope with it.
This isn’t to discredit South Africa though. They defend incredibly, if not chaotically, but they’re fast and can make up for any mistakes. Back rows are going to be a huge talking point at any World Cup, as they have such a huge impact on a team’s success, and right now the Springboks can change theirs up and it doesn’t seem to get any weaker. It’s also worth pointing out that the last time they played Ireland, they opened us up quite a few times.
Everyone says about how influential Rassie Erasmus has been too, but if we flip it over to Andy Farrell, you can say the same. Also, because he’s not that old, he gets the game more than others and understands how individuals in his squad play on a weekly basis; plus his team selection has been superb since he took over. His style of play has taken a while to get going, but the way Ireland play now, and with their strength and depth, I can see them go a long way in this tournament.
With Scotland, I hear a lot of their fans saying they’re going to beat South Africa, and as much as I’d love to see that too, I don’t understand where this huge hype for them has come from. Maybe it was the huge comeback against a second-string French team recently? But to me, they just don’t have the ability to go out and get a win.
I’ve watched them so much and played against them on the international stage, and one positive at least is that they have improved in their ability to hang in there when the going gets tough, but that comes down to Gregor Townsend’s better team selections.”
Pool C: Crack on mate
“I think Warren Gatland’s main objective in this tournament is to make Wales a really hard team to beat, simple as that. He has a history of doing that at Rugby World Cups, and Wales can definitely win enough games in this group to qualify.
They’ll have Fiji’s number, and Gatland will already have a plan in place to stop them in their tracks. We should rightly be giving them a chance with the decent warm up they’ve had and Gatland will also now know what his strongest 15 will be, after smartly mixing things up in the last few games.
With Australia, Eddie Jones just wants his players to crack on, I mean they’re not playing particularly well at the moment, and Eddie knows how to deflect the criticism onto himself, but he can do it in a World Cup and has plenty of big scalps under his belt.
Will Skelton is an interesting captain choice though, having only recently been catapulted back into the squad. They do have a lot of talent and players who can score a try out of nothing, but can defensively be a little all over the shop. I also think that if you allow them to have a multi-phase position, they can break you down, but if you hold onto the ball they’ll give you lots of opportunities and can be broken down way too easily.
There are a lot of young players Eddie is putting his trust into, but if anyone will eventually get the best out of them, it’s him. So with that, they’ll finish at the top of this Pool.”
Pool D: England is ‘cringey’
“I saw England lose recently against Ireland and despite kicking it about 20 times in the first half, they didn’t even come close to winning the kicking game. The rest of the time it was George Ford getting the ball passed back to him and the England boys chasing the kicks – that’s not rugby union.
England should be scoring incredible team tries and showing their talents. Instead, it just felt a bit cringey to see them playing this way and strangely it looked like a planned tactic, which is weird heading into a Rugby World Cup. It doesn’t look like the England players are enjoying themselves either, they’re being so robotic and regimented, and also every fan is crying out for this to change, but is there enough time?
That said, they have some opportunities in this group stage to turn things around and maybe play with a bit more freedom. That might be enough to get them to finish second.
I haven’t seen a huge amount of Argentina, but the bottom line is that they generally perform well at a World Cup. If we think back to 2007, when they handled that pressure in a group of death, this side has shades of that squad. They’re full of guys that aren’t always the most skillful but they’re dogged, attritional, passionate and fierce competitors. That counts for a lot on the big stage, and if they can build on this, they’ll top the group and cause lots of teams problems.”
Quarterfinals
Quarterfinal One: Australia v England
“Again, it’s the favourable side of the draw, and if England has picked up some momentum and confidence, they could beat Australia here, Owen Farrell might be back at this point too which will give them a lift.
England should have more brute force upfront, it’s in there somewhere and they have the potential to dominate when they want to. A win over Australia would be a great talking point too, especially considering how poor England has been lately.”
Quarterfinal Two: Ireland v New Zealand
“Ireland hasn’t beaten anyone at this stage before, but if this is the draw, I guarantee you 95 percent of the stadium in France would be supporting the boys in green here.
It would be a home advantage – of sorts – for Ireland to help them get the win. Plus everyone loves an upset, and to me, mentally Ireland has New Zealand’s number at the minute.”
Quarterfinal Three: Argentina v Wales
“Wales would be extremely happy to get a Quater-final, considering how their season has been. I do think if at this point either side has lost a few players, and has had to dig deeper into the squad, Argentina has a little bit more to choose from. It’ll be tight, but for either side, just being in the knockouts will be a huge achievement.”
Quarterfinal Four: France v South Africa
“There has to be a huge upset in the tournament somewhere and this will be it, the Springboks would win.
South Africa is great in the air and I can just see the kicks raining down to make France’s back three struggle. France can also be vulnerable upfront, whereas South Africa isn’t and I know France is a powerful side, but not when compared to the Springboks.
South Africa is a team that I would’ve loved to have played for; their physicality and presence and the way they play is just amazing.”
Semifinals
Semifinal One: England v Ireland
“[Laughs] Ireland would win by 40 points. Next! In all seriousness though, Ireland should progress here. Even if they’re struggling with injuries, it could be a victory by as many as 12-15 points.”
Semifinal Two: Argentina vs South Africa
“It would be a comfortable win for South Africa. Again, I think Argentina would be delighted to get to this stage and it would be great for the game to see this, but the Springboks would march on to the final.”
Bronze Final
England v Argentina
“I think the only reason I would go for Argentina here is so that England wouldn’t get a medal [laughs].”
Final
Ireland v South Africa
“Ireland’s consistency since the World Cup draw has had them as the best team in the world, but South Africa have grown and become stronger over the last few weeks. The Springboks have an incredible tournament mentality too, and as an Irish fan and former player, I’d love to see Ireland win a final – and they will fancy their chances – but South Africa will edge it. Also, if we really ask ourselves ‘Can Ireland do it seven weeks on the bounce?’, sadly the history books have shown they can’t.
That said, Ireland has smashed a lot of big teams. They play with a high tempo, and big physicality and ultimately Andy Farrell lets them go out there and be themselves. There’s nothing one-dimensional about them, and if they can keep their best players fit, they do have a chance and I hope that I’m wrong. Also, the lads will never have to pay for a drink again in their life if they bring it back home from France.”
