All Blacks will target Monty

It’s D-Day for the Springboks this weekend when they host the All Blacks in their first home match of the 2008 Tri-Nations and former Bok star Robbie Fleck takes a look at Saturday’s clash.

It goes without saying I guess, but this weekend’s game is shaping up as South Africa’s toughest clash of the Tri-Nations thus far.

Yes, the Springboks beat the All Blacks in Dunedin – and what a psychological victory that was – but a lot has changed since then. The Kiwis, of course, went on to lose to the Wallabies a fortnight ago, but their return fixture against Australia the following week has ripped this Tri-Nations wide open.

However, if the All Blacks had lost to the Wallabies in Auckland two weeks ago, I don’t think it would even have been possible to contemplate a Springbok loss this Saturday.

I still don’t think this is the greatest All Blacks side to land on our shores, and I’m not sure the team fully believe in what their management are trying to achieve, but they’re on a high and have some self-belief back – two elements that will make them as dangerous as ever.

Their selections are also slowly beginning to take shape and the return from injury of one Richie McCaw has made a massive difference to this side that, just a few weeks ago, appeared very listless.

For instance, McCaw’s return has allowed Rodney So’oialo to move back to No.8 and, freed of the burden of captaincy, his performances have also improved steadily. So’oialo might be a good team man and a popular figure, but he’s no international captain.

It’s funny, really, how things change; just a few short weeks ago the Springboks arrived in New Zealand with their strongest team and the All Blacks in a bit of disarray, yet, this week the Kiwis will face a Bok team without injured World Cup skipper John Smit; not to mention fellow injured RWC stars Bakkies Botha and Jaque Fourie.

Bakkies’s loss, in particular, is a major blow – oh how the Kiwis will ‘miss’ his subtle late hits, his power in the scrums and at the breakdown, and his trademark little push into the dirt after a typically brutish big hit.

Brad Thorn will be licking his lips at the prospect of coming up against Andries Bekker in his first Tri-Nations start. Bekker and Victor Matfield are both fantastic ball winners, but they are not the type of players to bully the opposition, leaving Schalk Burger to fight a lone battle as his team’s enforcer.

The return of Fourie du Preez is a plus for the Boks, but his selection – despite what some politicians might think or say – would not have been such a straight-forward one.

The Kiwis aren’t big fans of playing against Ricky Januarie, whose tigerish defence around the fringes is a major point of disruption for most teams, and the Boks will miss his overall physicality on the day. However, when it comes down to a must-win Test of this nature, the selection of Du Preez in the No.9 shirt makes a lot of sense. He was the best scrumhalf in the world last year and his kicking game is second to none.

Kicking out of hand will be a massive factor come Saturday and the All Blacks boast the best there is in Daniel Carter. Not only was Carter brilliant in the game the ABs lost to the Wallabies, but he was even better the next week – proving once again that he is indeed the greatest player on the planet at present.

Tactically, he is in a different class, he can land the ball anywhere he wants to – much like a certain Naas Botha in his pomp – and if it rains on Saturday, Carter will come into his own even more.

It was heartening to see Butch’s superb performance against Argentina last week, but he doesn’t have the same control as Carter. Of course, Jean de Villiers at inside centre (or second five-eighth, according to the New Zealanders) doesn’t have a traditional kicking game either, but at least the Boks have Frans Steyn to call upon from the bench should the need arise.

A lot of talk this week has centred around Percy Montgomery’s 100th Test cap and rightly so. It really is a magnificent achievement by Percy and it is hard to think of anybody who deserves it more than him. But there will be a lot of emotions out there and the All Blacks will know it; more importantly, Carter will know it and he will no doubt be sending a couple of high bombs Monty’s way.

I’m sure Monty wouldn’t want it any other way, playing his 100th game in Cape Town – he is after all a son of Newlands – but it might have been a bit wiser had they maybe planned for him to earn his century in a less pressure-filled encounter like last week’s clash against Argentina. I am not doubting Monty’s ability to cope under pressure, but he’s only human and the occasion of his 100th cap will be something he would never have felt before.

Monty won’t be the only guy feeling the pressure… The Bok management will be panicking this week, especially given their relative inexperience at this level, but they did a good thing by including John Smit in their preparations this week. Smit’s importance, and leadership skills, are simply irreplaceable.

I do think the Boks can win this match and go on to beat the Wallabies on successive weekends to lift the Tri-Nations trophy. However, there is no doubt that Saturday’s match is shaping up as the toughest of their three home encounters.

If they lose on Saturday they might as well kiss their Tri-Nations dream goodbye, but a victory will set them up perfectly for two more titanic tussles against the Wallabies. Who said it got any easier?

Fleckie’s prediction: If it rains, I’m afraid the All Blacks will take it. But, if the sun stays out – as the various forecasts suggest – then prepare yourself for one helluva game! The Boks will take a five-point start into this game – as the home side – and I’m expecting that to see them home in the end.

Chat next time,
Fleckie

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