Beware the wounded Wallaby

South Africa are on home soil for the next four weeks, and even though Australia haven’t won on these shores since 2000, the Springboks’ biggest threat may well come from the Wallabies. Read what Robbie Fleck has to say this week about the Tri-Nations, Argentina and the Currie Cup.

I only happen to watch a few glimpses of the game between New Zealand and Australia in Auckland last Saturday, but from what I could pick up the Aussies came out firing and put some early pressure on the ABs by piecing some decent phases together.

For me it was impressive to see the Robbie Deans influence and Crusaders style. In that first five minutes I thought it was going to be another nightmare for Graham Henry and his boys.

But the All Blacks hung in there and turned it on when it counted – after the three points were scored by the Aussies, that was it, the game was over. They never looked like they were in the game after that.

I think the All Blacks finally got it right, well… Graham Henry finally, with his selections and game plan. The back three looked more composed with Richard Kahui on the right wing and the loose forwards with Rodney So’oialo at No.8. In the midfield there’s still question marks over Ma’a Nonu – even though he had the best Test match of his career.

Generally Henry got his selections right, but there’s still a couple of question marks – like Nonu and Jerome Kaino.

Overall it was a hell of a physical approach by the All Blacks, with Richie McCaw’s leadership making a huge difference. It just shows what leadership does. If you look at the Springboks, when John Smit is not in the side, how much the Boks suffer in terms of leadership and guidance on the pitch and in keeping the guys together. That is where McCaw comes in. He really does play a major role.

I also thought that McCaw dominated the breakdown. He had a good battle with Phil Waugh and George Smith in the opening exchanges, but when Waugh left it was a lone battle between McCaw and Smith and McCaw definitely came out tops. Smith has been dominating at the breakdown in every other Test so far, but McCaw’s inclusion obviously had a massive impact on him and the match.

From a physical point of view, I felt the All Blacks really did dominate at the breakdown. It was the best line-out performance they’ve had this year and for the first time they actually backed themselves in every aspect of their game.

Then there was Dan Carter’s tactical kicking – instead of trying to run it from everywhere, Carter played the tactical role he does so often when playing for the Crusaders, especially against the likes of the Bulls. When Carter’s boot is on fire, he puts most teams under immense pressure. His kicking out of hand, kicking into space and keeping the Aussies under pressure was impressive to say the least.

It was always going to be difficult for the Aussies to go to New Zealand to beat New Zealand in their back yard. Add to that that the Kiwis had their ‘backs to wall’, facing three defeats in a row, and like a wounded Springbok, difficult to beat.

The fact the ABs did their “special” Haka showed how much this game meant to them. Every time I watch the Haka, I still get a weird but awesome feeling rushing through my body.

However, there still is something in that Aussie side that we really have to be wary of coming into our home Tests. There’s something special brewing Down Under and its all down to Robbie Deans with some special talent.

Graham Henry has been talking a lot about the ELVs – saying that they as a management haven’t played enough under these new laws. His assistant coaches, Wayne Smith and Steve Hansen, have been saying the same thing … saying ‘we’re adapting to these new laws’, where as Robbie Deans has had a full season with the ELVs in the Super 14.

It shouldn’t be an excuse from Graham Henry’s part, he should have been watching the Super 14 and picking up great tips objectively as well as heaps of info through video analysis. Henry has had a full year to study the laws.

However, it did seem like a classic Test in Auckland, where it came down to the physicality of the breakdown, who dominated the breakdown, who dominated the set pieces and the tactical kicking.

It really was a Test match where Carter’s boot played the defining role. It was not so much the ELVs that had an impact on the game, it was more the old classic All Black rugby where they dominated the ruck-and-mauls, the physicality at the breakdown and defensively through some big hits.

In saying that, even though their defence was excellent, the Aussies still found some holes in the backline especially the outside channel, which is why I think this Aussie side is so impressive and dangerous to say the least.

Deans has this ability to expose teams in the outside channel which is a major concern for opposing teams and this has happened after just three months. Imagine the Aussies after a year with Deans? Something to think about.

If the route Graham Henry and his management are going to go by playing within the ELVs, but concentrate on the physicality side and tactical kicking aspects of the game, then they need to replace Nonu – which will benefit them in the long run. They need to get a tactical second five-eighth (No.12) who is able to kick out of hand, who is able to put pressure on the back three of the opposition, who is able to turn the pack and who is able to split the field.

They must play a left and right game. If he is going to go that way, Nonu is not the answer at No.12.

If I have to look ahead to the rest of the Tri-Nations, even though we will be at home, it is not going to be easy. Suddenly the All Blacks have found their form and confidence. They were obviously missing something. Yes, McCaw was a big factor, but they were missing something that’s been part of All Black rugby for decades. I felt that apart from the win against South Africa in Wellington, it was fairly lazy performances by the All Blacks.

That’s one thing that’s never been part of their game. When you play against the All Blacks you know it’s going to be an intense, physical encounter. I just felt their players were sort of off the boil, a bit lazy in their approach to the game. You could see at the weekend when they turned it up it was a different story.

It is not going to be easy for South Africa to beat these guys at home, especially at Newlands where the All Blacks feel comfortable and have a good track record and local support. Likewise, when you face Australia.

I was thinking that Australia would only bear fruit at the end of the season, but it just seems that Robbie Deans is such an excellent coach and the Aussies are such intelligent rugby players that they have bought into his whole philosophy and style of rugby within a matter of weeks.

Now suddenly the pressure is on, back at home, for South Africa. Three weeks ago I would have said that South Africa won’t lose one Test match at home, but now it seems a different story. I think we really are facing a tough challenge ahead.

The other aspect I would like to touch on this week is selections. It is interesting to see that selections have been a big talking point in both the Springbok camp and New Zealand. I see both Peter de Villiers and Graham Henry have been criticised, and rightly so, over their selection policy. The only sound, consistent selection policy is coming from Robbie Deans. You might suddenly find that that’s the team that wins the Tri-Nations at the end of the day. The team that’s consistent.

Robbie Deans is selecting players on form and on whom he believes is the right personnel or right make-up for the team. Its all about the team and not individuals. He is working on combinations, where as both Henry and De Villiers are experimenting – dropping here and there, with no real thought process behind the decisions which is a concern.

If you look back at the Jake White tenure, he was consistent in his selections building up to the world cup and throughout his four years. I do believe that consistency in selection is a major factor in how successful your team is. Like Henry, Peter de Villiers needs to stop messing around with selections. He needs to get them right and be comfortable like a Robbie Deans is.

Yes, Francois Steyn hasn’t played well and maybe he does need to go and get his confidence back in the Currie Cup. Ruan Pienaar, the poor guy doesn’t even know what position he is playing, neither at the Sharks nor at Springbok level. He needs to go back and secure his position at No.9 and play some rugga. Gürthro Steenkamp, I’m a bit surprised at that. Odwa Ndungane, I thought, played quite well and didn’t think he was out of his depth.

But for me, we should be more consistent with our selections. We can’t be messing around with selections halfway through the Tri-Nations. We should have been settled on this team three-four weeks ago.

The fact that there’s no back-up flyhalf for Butch James is also a concern. He’s obviously thinking of Monty as a back-up flyhalf, but that remains a concern.

Prediction for the week: Argentina are always a tough nut to crack. Although they have never beaten us, for them it’s a massive game. For us it is a game building up to the second half of the Tri-Nations, so psychologically there’s no doubt that the Argentinians are going to be up for it. They had a great start to their mid-year Tests, beating Scotland, then lost a couple of games, but they are always a tough team to beat.

After the semifinal defeat to the Boks in the World Cup last year, they will want to get one back on us. It will be interesting to see how they go, but South Africa are going to be too strong for them on the day. Physically I think South Africa will dominate the breakdown along with the set pieces with our backs punching regular holes in the midfield all day long. I’m hoping Jaque Fourie gets a run as I would really like to see him back in the midfield with Jean. He really does dominate the midfield defensively and in terms of getting us over the advantage line on attack. Obviously at the end of the day it’s going to be a South African win, but it is not going to be as easy as everybody thinks. It’s going to be a tough battle, I just hope the Boks are mentally up for this game.

* I was asked about the Currie Cup, but the Currie Cup is not the real Currie Cup until the Springboks are involved.

That’s the bottom line. We can talk the Currie Cup as much as we like, but until the Springboks are involved, I don’t see much value apart from the unearthing of young talent. That’s where the real value is. Maybe it’s fitting to see a guy like Frans Steyn back in the Currie Cup for a while as this is where he made his name. Let’s hope Steyn can dominate and get his confidence back and return to the world stage where he belongs.

Chat next time,
Fleckie

* Email Fleckie at rugby365@365digital.co.za with any comments.

* Fleckie’s ‘Last Word’ will appear weekly on rugby365.com and iafrica.com, so log on next week for more exclusive views from him!