Boks could frighten the world

rugby365 columnist Robbie Fleck knows he got things wrong last week, but he doffs his caps to the Springboks and makes a prediction for the Wallabies clash in Perth this weekend…

Well, you can’t get it right every week, can you?

I am always more than happy to put my hand up when I get things wrong and even happier than normal after getting the Dunedin prediction wrong last weekend… Predictions are never easy – but even though I try to be as objective as possible at all times, I never mind getting things wrong when it means the Springboks emerge victorious.

I loved some of the feedback that the guys at rugby365.com and iafrica.com sent me after the weekend and even though there were some suggestions of “egg on my face” after the Boks won – far from it, I was a happy man on Saturday!

As far as I am concerned, the Boks can play even better than they did in Dunedin. For me, it was more a case of them wanting it more – much like the All Blacks the week before in Wellington.

In Wellington, the All Blacks had plenty to play for… Some players were battling for their futures, whilst Graham Henry – and co-coaches Wayne Smith and Steve Hansen – was fighting for his future, too, especially in the aftermath of last year’s Rugby World Cup disaster.

There was a big build-up to the Dunedin match; the Kiwis were on a high and the pressure had decreased on them as a result, there were plenty of squabbles between the camps and the vultures – for some reason – had already begun circling around Peter de Villiers.

Something must have been said in the Springbok camp during the build-up to last week, as there was plenty of positive energy out there. You could see the game meant more to the Boks than it did to the ABs and it told on the scoreboard – despite the home team dominating possession and territory and the Boks being forced into making twice as many tackles on the night.

The mental aspect of sport cannot be understated and, having spoken to Professor Tim Noakes during the Varsity Cup, he has changed his tune in recent times – that after believing for so long that a player’s physical attributes were more important. Tim is a genuine man of science and his change in mindset is a lesson to all of us out there.

Before last week, the Springboks had not won in New Zealand since 1998. Some decent Bok sides have lost to some pretty average New Zealand sides in that time – mainly because none of them believed that they could beat those guys dressed in black, steeped in traditions and at grounds where history was seemingly against them.

Looking ahead to this weekend, the Wallabies will be an entirely difference kettle of fish to the All Blacks.

They’re a new team; new in coaching staff and playing style and with some pretty inexperienced players in key positions.

Robbie Deans is an excellent coach – probably the best in the world alongside countryman Warren Gatland – but his new approach will take time to take full effect on his players.

Rod Macqueen, and Eddie Jones after him, perfected a structured Wallabies gameplan – the so-called ‘phase rugby’ – but even before them I would say that Bob Dwyer had a pretty structured gameplan, too. As good as Deans is, it will take some time for the Wallabies to play like the Crusaders did.

They are effectively trying to move on after 15-20 years of playing one style of rugby, but the Wallabies are an intelligent rugby nation and they tend to adapt to changes – in laws, conditions and playing styles – quicker than most. That adaptability is a major strength of Australian rugby and when they get it right, they will be very tough to beat.

For now, however, they are struggling a wee bit. Deans wants them to play it like they see it in front of them, but some of the players struggled against a tenacious Irish side and a rather mediocre French outfit in their warm-up Test matches.

Mark my words, by the end of the year this Wallabies team will be a top, top unit, but right now I can’t see them getting the better of a Springbok side that has just managed to beat the All Blacks at Dunedin’s ‘House of Pain’.

The Boks will be full of confidence after that victory at Carisbrook, so much so that I think it will be worth a 10-point start to them even before kick-off.

The Boks also have some very experienced campaigners in key positions and some useful (selection) combinations to go along with that experience, not to mention a very good record at the Subiaco Oval – all of which is a pretty compelling argument to back the Springboks!

What pleases me most after last week’s win is all the positive press the Springboks have been getting abroad. The Kiwi press were quick to praise the Boks, whilst some big-name former internationals have also heaped the praise on De Villiers’s side.

Our opposition have always rated us for our physicality, set-piece work, trademark defence and adequate backline play. However, they have always dreaded the day that our wings would begin to see more ball – in other words, the day the Boks became a more complete team.

In the past, the Boks have tended to use one-off runners to take the ball up before kicking to the corners. Now, we’re exposing holes in the opposition defence, getting our outside backs into play more and using the hookers down the tramlines – all of which is making this Springbok team a very complete outfit.

Springbok teams in my day were never able to punch holes in the defence from phase play and it’s a scary thought for our opposition to contemplate. Robbie Deans is no fool and he knows the danger of South African rugby, hence him talking up the Springbok team this week.

Looking at the Bok team announced to take on the Wallabies, I think De Villiers has made some great changes.

Monty was sound last week and his experience will be missed at the back, but the selection of Conrad Jantjes is an indication that the Springboks will spread the ball.

The other change to the backline is an enforced one, with Frans Steyn coming in for the injured Adi Jacobs, who did not too badly last week.

I am, however, a bit worried about Steyn playing out of position at outside centre. As I keep saying each and every week, I would love to see him at inside centre, but with Jean in such commanding form in the No.12 shirt, he is something of a factor himself and it’s great to see a South African midfielder posing such a serious threat on the world stage.

Up front, I am glad to see Pierre Spies at No.8 – he brings a unique Bob Skinstad-like ability to the run-on side and even though ‘Big Joe’ was much improved in the second Test, Spies will put the Aussie midfield under big pressure. Watch out for Butch James using those little pop passes around the fringes, giving the likes of Giteau, Barnes and Mortlock plenty of tackling to do with Spies steaming at them.

Bismarck du Plessis’s suspension is a blow, but I think Schalk Brits could blossom against the Wallabies at this level and I am very keen to watch him go now that he has his chance.

Looking at the bench, the Boks have gone with two props in the shape of the ‘Beast’ and Brian Mujati – a masterstroke as far as I am concerned.

Gürthro Steenkamp and CJ van der Linde will be used to soften up the Wallabies – traditionally, not the world’s best scrummagers – and when Mtawarira and Mujati come off the bench for the final quarter, there will be no respite in that department either.

The Bok brainstrust are no doubt of the opinion that disrupting Australia’s first-phase ball will put them under pressure and prevent them from going wide on the front foot. Having four props in their matchday 22 is one way of achieving that.

Elsewhere on the bench, I am very happy to see Ryan Kankowski back in the mix. Luke Watson’s performances over the past two weeks suggest that he is more of an 80-minute player, whereas Kankowski is a real threat whenever your introduce him. He has pace and skill and could make a real impact.

Ruan Pienaar’s utility value is a no-brainer on the bench, but I do find the selection of Peter Grant – as one of just two back replacements – rather interesting.

Frans Steyn has not impressed as a flyhalf replacement and Butch hasn’t really been on fire thus far in the Tri-Nations. Expect Grant to get some game time and show just why he is so highly-rated by his coach and myself.

Fleckie’s prediction: The Boks are on a high and this game is just a few months too early for this new Wallabies team. South Africa to win.

Enjoy the game,
Fleckie

* Email Fleckie at rugby365@365digital.co.za with any comments.

* Fleckie’s ‘Last Word’ will appear weekly on rugby365.com and iafrica.com, so log on next week for more exclusive views from him!