Boks need to avoid complacency trap

Former Springbok centre and sport365 columnist Robbie Fleck believes the Boks are well on track for a Rugby World Cup Final place, but complacency could be their greatest enemy during the knockout stages of the tournament.

South Africa should be well chuffed with their performances in the group stages of the Rugby World Cup, but the real test starts this weekend when the knockout stages get underway in France.

The first-choice team produced some good rugby against the USA last Sunday – remember, England, Tonga and Samoa all battled against them – and once again I was very impressed with Frans Steyn at inside centre and I thought Schalk Burger did some good things upon his return from suspension.

Whether or not Schalk should remain at No.8 remains to be seen, however.

I think he did better than Danie Rossouw at No.8, and it really is near impossible to drop one of Wikus van Heerden or Juan Smith, but South Africa need to find a long-term number eight after this World Cup.

Ryan Kankowski is the most logical solution for the future, but he is still very young. For now, South Africa might be forced to go with Schalk at No.8, but it remains a concern that nobody has really fully replaced Gary Teichmann in the Bok No.8 shirt. Bob Skinstad was the obvious heir apparent at one stage, and would have done the job I believe, but unfortunately injuries robbed South Africa of one of its greatest back row talents to date.

For now, however, the Boks should be able to get away without a specialist No.8, mainly because of the quality of the individuals in their loose trio – Van Heerden, Smith and Burger – not to mention having Bob on the bench.

Aside from their brief scare against Tonga – mainly thanks to the second-stringers not being up to it on the day – the Boks did all that was expected of them, and more some would say, during the pool stages and, as a result, they have an easier passage into the final.

Of course, the Boks have to keep their feet firmly on the ground over the next two weeks and they cannot afford to be complacent against the likes of Fiji and Argentina.

But at the same time (and without trying contradict myself straightaway!), the Springboks should beat Fiji convincingly this weekend and in the process lay down a marker ahead of the semi-finals.

South Africa have traditionally struggled to put away the so-called ‘lesser’ World Cup teams – Tonga during the pool stages is a case in point – but they will not get any second chances during the knockout stages and they need to put Fiji to the sword on Sunday.

Fiji love nothing more than a loose, Sevens-type match and the Boks need to keep things tight out there and use their forwards to grind the Fijians down. If we get on top of them in the set-pieces it will frustrate them and with our defence virtually impregnable – unlike Wales’s defence last week – it could be a long afternoon for Fiji come Sunday.

Pacific Island teams generally like playing the same type of game and we can’t afford to give their backs too much room to move. Before the World Cup, Jake said defence would win it in France, and he is probably right. Graham Henry, however, must be eating his words after saying that he would rather give up the Webb Ellis trophy than win it “ugly”…

The injuries to the props, BJ Botha and CJ van der Linde, would not have helped things this week, but to be honest, I think CJ is a bigger loss. BJ battled in the scrums against England and CJ’s ball-carrying abilities will be sorely missed in the latter stages of a tight match.

Jannie du Plessis is no mean replacement though and I was very impressed with him at the weekend when he came off the bench against the Sharks in the Currie Cup. He’s a bright guy and he knows what to do, whilst Jake’s much-maligned rotation policy during the away leg of the Tri-Nations also seems to be paying off now, with Jannie having picked up valuable experience against the likes of the All Blacks and the Wallabies – both away from home.

Wikus, who also featured during the away leg of the Tri-Nations, filled Schalk’s shoes against England when he was suspended and I have no doubt that Jannie, if called upon, can do the same in the absence of BJ and CJ. Clearly, another one of Jake White’s plans have worked…

Who knows, Jannie could even strengthen the team, much like Frans Steyn has in the absence of Jean de Villiers. Jean is a good mate of mine, and a damn fine player, but Frans Steyn has been possibly the most impressive inside centre on show at the World Cup – the biggest stage of all. It’s hard to argue with that.

But Jean, and a guy like BJ Botha, will come back better players and that, in the long run, can only benefit South African rugby, especially if the younger incumbents make them fight for their Springbok places.

Jean and Jaque Fourie have not had any serious challengers for their centre berths since they took over from De Wet Barry and Marius Joubert in 2005. Competition is healthy and hopefully a new outside centre will emerge in South Africa to challenge Jaque Fourie, who, in my opinion, has not quite been on top form at the World Cup.

This Springbok team has been through a lot since 2004; they’ve had various off-field dramas surrounding their coach and selection policies, they’ve had injuries and illnesses before the World Cup and during the World Cup, they’ve also had to do deal with Schalk’s suspension. Thus far, they have handled all those setbacks with aplomb; something that previous Springbok teams have not been able to do.

These latest injury setbacks are nothing but minor speed bumps on their World Cup road. Jake will not let it disrupt them as this squad enters its most crucial time together – the knockout stages of the 2007 Rugby World Cup. This is what they’ve been working towards all these years – they need to make it count over the next three weekends.

Fleckie’s RWC predictions – The quarter-finals:

Australia v England: England are pretty much in the same situation that the Boks were in the 2003 and waiting to be put out of their misery by the Wallabies. Forget all the hype about an improved England – it was ‘only’ Samoa and Tonga, after all – this is the worst England team I have seen in years and the Wallabies will knock them out.

New Zealand v France: The undoubted game of the weekend… New Zealand have cruised through the pool stages without raising a sweat, but France have been made to fight. Whilst many people still have that ’99 semi-final in their memories, I can’t help but think this New Zealand team will not make the same mistakes of previous All Blacks sides. New Zealand will win by 10 points – but don’t expect me to put any money down on this game, especially given some of my dodgy predictions this World Cup!!

South Africa v Fiji: If we keep things tight and kick to the corners and use our line-out drive effectively, Fiji could be in for a long afternoon. We mustn’t fall into the trap that Wales did and play too loose. The Boks should take this by 20-30 points.

Argentina v Scotland: This will be the least exciting of all the quarter-finals, but I’m backing Argentina to beat Scotland by at least 20 points. Argentina been an absolute joy to watch during the World Cup and they will set up an intriguing semi-final meeting with the Springboks next week.

Enjoy the quarter-finals,
Robbie Fleck

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