Boks will win at home

Former Springbok centre Robbie Fleck looks ahead to this weekend’s Australia-New Zealand Test in Sydney, whilst also making a prediction for the rest of South Africa’s Tri-Nations campaign.

I’m still struggling to work out exactly how the Springboks lost that game in Perth last Saturday. I thought they dominated the first 20/30 minutes, especially in terms of physicality, but they had nothing to show from it by half-time.

Despite George Smith bossing the breakdown for most of the game, we were well in control in the first half. I thought Bakkies Botha was particularly outstanding and Schalk Burger fought a lone battle against the likes of Smith and Rocky Elsom.

I watched the game with some friends and I made a comment to the guys at half-time that the Wallabies just wouldn’t be able to live with us in the second half. How wrong was I?

The key for the Wallabies was taking that one try-scoring chance in the first half; it’s a sign of a good team that can do that. At the same time, we had plenty of our own chances, but we just didn’t take them – it’s an old South African problem and one we need to eradicate.

When two quality sides meet in a Test match the smallest things matter – of course, taking your chances are important, but you have to make the right call in the first place. In the days of Gregan, Larkham and Horan playing together for the Wallabies, it was always pretty obvious that they would attack from first phase and they always executed their moves perfectly.

The Boks, last week, made the wrong calls and also executed things badly, whereas the Wallabies had two real try-scoring chances and they took both of them. It was intelligent rugby and those Aussies will become an even better side the more they get used to Robbie Deans’s coaching.

The Springboks of last year – when Eddie Jones was involved – were a pretty similar team. At the World Cup whenever they got into try-scoring positions they knew what to do and how to do it. Butch James, in particular, pulled all their attacking strings RWC and one would expect Dick Muir to get the same levels of performance from Butchie.

Those two tries – one of which came via a missed tackle from probably the best centre in the world at the moment, Jean de Villiers – and the breakdown were the two major reasons behind our loss.

Jean is without doubt the best attacking centre in world rugby at the moment (he cut the Aussies in pieces on attack), but a guy like Brian O’Driscoll would not have missed that tackle on Stirling Mortlock. Jean needed to go around Mortlock’s ankles, not his chest, it just wasn’t good enough from a guy of Jean’s size. Tim Horan – who is half of Jean’s size – would never have missed that tackle, he would’ve gone around the ankles.

I’m not blaming Jean, but it’s the small things that win – or lose – you a Test match.

The other point of contention for me was the breakdown. The Wallabies beat us fair and square on the ground and no amount of moaning will change that. Us South Africans need to stop moaning – it always seems to be the referee’s fault or the opposition openside’s fault, never ours. That needs to change – we’re not a nation of moaners.

The Bok management need to learn from the mistakes they have made – I like the mix in a coaching staff of Peter de Villiers, Dick Muir and Gary Gold, but they are still a bit inexperienced and that is showing a tad. I don’t buy the talk of that match being a bridge too far – no team should say that and if John Smit was there he would not have let that happen…

Given our history away from home in the Tri-Nations, one from three is not a bad effort on an overseas leg – but the one game the Boks would have expected to win was the Perth one.

From that point of view it was disappointing, but looking ahead to the rest of the Tri-Nations, I cannot actually see us losing another one. The All Blacks – as I have said before – are a very average team this year and the Wallabies don’t have a great record in South Africa. Australia will lose both their matches – one of them by a big margin.

De Villiers needs to identify his best team before the start of our home leg, I guess, in hindsight, you could say that the Boks got their selections a bit wrong against the Wallabies. I still think Luke Watson is an 80-minute player, but it would’ve helped to have had him on the bench when Schalk went off injured.

Bismarck du Plessis will also be welcomed back with open arms. Schalk Brits did okay in Perth, but he is not as strong in the scrums as Bismarck and John Smit and we just weren’t able to disrupt their set-piece enough as a result.

The Boks will enjoy their break this weekend after a tough three weeks away from home and it’s now over to the Wallabies and the All Blacks to fight things out in Sydney.

As I said before, these All Blacks are not too special – they’re clutching at straws this season. Their selections are looking a bit better this week, howeever; Thorn is back at lock and Somerville is back, too – it will give them plenty of grunt up front.

I see Adam Thomson has finally been dropped, which is about time. He wouldn’t even make a Super 14 side in South Africa. Daniel Braid has now come into the mix at openside – but I really cannot see him getting the better of George Smith on the ground. Jerome Kaino has been retained at No.8, but he doesn’t exactly excite me.

Anthony Tuitavake in for Rudi Wulf is a positive change, but I was very surprised to see Richard Kahui come in for Conrad Smith. I do rate Kahui, and have mentioned him in a previous column, but Smith’s been in great form this year and his defence has been pretty formidable.

The Aussies, meanwhile, will miss Stirling Mortlock from a leadership point of view, but I thought Ryan Cross did very well when he came on against us, so he won’t be such a loss…

They will be on a high after their win over the Springboks and there will be plenty of self-belied within the team, which is coached by one of the best in the world in Robbie Deans.

The only potential weak link for me is Berrick Barnes at inside centre. Don’t ask me who should be playing in the No.12 shirt for them – there aren’t many other options – but if I were the All Blacks, I would attack that inside centre channel.

Fleckie’s prediction: I’m expecting a tough game – but the Wallabies will edge out the All Blacks… just.

Until next week,
Rob

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