Desperation to win it for ABs
rugby365 columnist Robbie Fleck believes the All Blacks will beat the Springboks in Saturday’s Tri-Nations Test in Wellington – because they will be more desperate to win.
It’s not often the Springboks go into a Tri-Nations Test against the All Blacks, in New Zealand, as the pre-match favourites.
I guess it’s hard to argue against many people’s predictions – and the logic behind it all – but there has been plenty of hype this week; from the public, the respective teams and Graham Henry, in particular.
Henry has been pretty vociferous, claiming his team are the underdogs, how it’s his biggest Test yet and the biggest challenge for his players, etc, etc. Look, they’re under pressure going into this Test, but they’ll be ready – it’s a game they’ve been preparing for ever since we won the Rugby World Cup in October last year.
The All Blacks will, of course, still be hurting from that quarterfinal defeat to the French at the World Cup, whilst the public and the media are all over Henry and the coaches after they were retained and Crusaders legend Robbie Deans was allowed to leave New Zealand to coach the Wallabies.
Also, there are injuries to key man (Richie McCaw and Joe Rokocoko) to deal with and some big names are now playing in Europe (Hayman, Jack, Collins, Kelleher, Mauger, McAllister and Howlett), whilst South Africa have some serious depth for the first time in a while. Of course, we also happen to be the world champions and despite having a new coach, it’s quite a settled starting XV with the likes of John Smit, Victor Matfield, Schalk Burger and Butch James in the mix.
But what worries me is that the Boks could just be a bit too confident come the weekend. Everyone is saying they will win and the minute they start believing that, there will be trouble.
At the same time, the All Blacks are desperate to win and protect their proud home record, which if I am not mistaken, currently stands at 29 games without a loss. The last time they lost at home was to Martin Johnson’s England team in 2003, whilst they have not lost to the Boks in New Zealand since 1998 – when Nick Mallett’s team won 13-3.
People always say the Springboks are at their most dangerous when they are down and out and written off. Can you imagine how dangerous the All Blacks will be this weekend? Everybody cares about this result – the All Blacks management, the players, the media, the taxi drivers in Wellington, the ladies selling beer at the Westpac Stadium. The All Blacks want this one more and have more reasons to win than the Boks.
Looking at the respective team line-ups, expect some titantic battles on Saturday, many of which will have a direct affect on proceedings. I have highlighted a few crucial battles – and factors – ahead of the Test:
– Adrian Jacobs at outside centre; can he cope with Ma’a Nonu running at him? I have written plenty about Jacobs this year. I am not surprised that he is there, but I don’t think he is the answer. Yes, there is not much with Jaque Fourie injured and Waylon Murray out of form, but a combination of Frans Steyn and Jean de Villiers just oozes possibilities.
– Odwa Ndungane; after one Test against Italy, it’s his first real Test match. Although one bonus is that Rudi Wulf – his opposite number – is as inexperienced.
– Tony Woodcock’s return is massive; him and Andrew Hore will attack CJ van der Linde and John Smit in the scrums. Scrums are more important in Test rugby than Super 14 – and there is no place to hide.
– Line-outs; one key area where South Africa will dominate.
– The breakdown; I also expect the Springboks to dominate this area. Richie McCaw’s loss is an obvious blow to them, but I don’t think they have selected the right mix without him. Jerome Kaino is not a Test player yet, Adam Thomson is talented, but raw and Rodney So’oialo is not quite an openside flanker.
– The weather; talk is that conditions won’t be that great and that will fall straight into New Zealand’s hands. We all saw those horrid conditions when the All Blacks played against Ireland, something like that on Saturday and it’s advantage home team.
– I mentioned the weather above, yet none of the teams have selected a traditional second five-eighth (a second flyhalf at inside centre) to give the flyhalves (Butch and Dan Carter) kicking options outside of them. Nonu is not a tactical kicker and Jean is not a kicker in the Steyn mode, which means both sides will play expansively – regardless of the weather…
Fleckie’s prediction: The desperate All Blacks to take this one – but only just.
Enjoy the game,
Robbie
* Email Fleckie at rugby365@365digital.co.za with any comments.
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