Fleckie: 'I'm back!'
After a no-show in Round Five, rugby365s Robbie Fleck is back on deck this week with his Round Six predictions…
Hello all,
I must apologise for not getting my column out last week – although I am more upset at missing out on the Round Five Super 14 predictions, which has seen me drop out of the predictions race against the Primedia Online staff and you, the readers.
As it turns out, I would have got four from six last week – I got the Crusaders-Force and Reds-Sharks games wrong – but I will make sure I make up some lost ground on the leaders in the prediction game.
There is loads to talk about, especially after the Stormers’ big win over the Lions and, again, those Reds continue to impress me.
They really are the most exciting side to watch and even though I wanted the Sharks to win – being a proud South African and nothing to do with my predictions! – it’s great to see a side like the Reds playing an exciting brand of rugby, but also getting the results.
It proves that rugby can be played that way; I would have loved to play in a team like or be involved in coaching a team like that. I guess, we’re trying to do that at UCT, and, as a coach, it gives me some hope!
I would love to talk more about that Reds-Sharks game, in particular (mostly about the Reds!), and also about the Stormers-Lions game, but the predictions take up a lot of space, so I will concentrate on that for now and get into some more technical ‘chat’ as the 2009 season progresses.
My Round Six predictions:
HURRICANES v BULLS:
Friday, March 20 – 8.35am
To be honest, I thought the Bulls should have gone Down Under a bit earlier – as they had a bye last week – in order to acclimatise quicker, but I know the guys from Pretoria don’t like being away from home too long, so hopefully it will work for them.
As it is, they don’t tend to travel well and even though they’ve been in good form this year, it will be a tough one for them against a side that – as we know – tends to blow hot and cold all season long.
The ‘Canes also had a week off, so they will certainly be fresher than the Bulls – as they have not had to travel.
Fleckie’s prediction: The ‘Canes to win a high-scoring game, but the Bulls will pick up two bonus points.
HIGHLANDERS v CHEETAHS:
Saturday, March 21 – 6.30am
These aren’t exactly the best two teams in the Super 14; so don’t cancel any early-morning plans for this game!
That said, the Highlanders have actually impressed this season, despite the limitations within their squad. They have pace out wide in Israel Dagg, Ben Smith and Fetu’u Vainikolo and they hardly embarrassed themselves last week. Of course, they also beat the Crusaders the week before, a good win despite it not being the most memorable of matches.
I feel for the Cheetahs, as I have said before and there is only so much coach Naka Drotské can do.
Fleckie’s prediction: The Highlanders to win this one. By more than 10 points.
CHIEFS v BLUES:
Saturday, March 21 – 8.35am
This should be a cracker!
The Chiefs are a good side and they have some serious firepower in their backline, with Lelia Masaga almost unstoppable ten metres from the tryline.
I think Stephen Donald is getting better each week (proving me wrong after a recent column!), but, so too are the Blues, who seemed to use their loss to the Sharks as a serious lesson in order to put their season back on track.
The Blues have a classy look about them – almost like the Blues of old – and I think they will get even better as the season progresses.
Fleckie’s prediction: Blues by more than five.
WARATAHS v CRUSADERS:
Saturday, March 21 – 10.40am
This is a tough one… But there is no doubting just how tough the Waratahs are to beat in Sydney.
Interestingly, however, thanks to the stats gurus at pickandgo, the ‘Tahs have not beaten the Crusaders in Sydney since 2003, with the ‘Red and Blacks’ winning away in 2005 and 2007. Can they do the same in 2009?
I think so… I know the Crusaders are not the team they were last year, or in years gone by, but they drew their match against the Force due to two moments of Matt Giteau brilliance.
They are not the kind of team to roll over and play dead, especially when the odds are against them, but – more importantly – they have a serious psychological hold over the ‘Tahs.
Fleckie’s prediction: If the Waratahs are serious about winning the Super 14, they need to win this game, but I am going to take a cheeky punt on this one. The Crusaders by less than five.
FORCE v SHARKS:
Saturday, March 21 – 12.45pm
As I mentioned above, the Force can think Giteau for their draw against the Crusaders. The Crusaders looked like they were going to run away with things last week, yet two Giteau breaks later and it’s 14 points to the Men from Perth.
They scraped that draw, let me tell you, and I don’t see the Sharks making the same errors again this week as they did against the Reds – who, as you know, I rate very highly.
Maybe the Sharks were also lulled into a false sense of security given their good start to their tour with wins over the Chiefs and the Blues, but I don’t see them allowing the Force the same luxury.
One thing that worries me, however, is the loss of Ruan Pienaar and Frans Steyn playing at flyhalf. Regular readers of this column will know that I rate Steyn very highly as a No.12, and I don’t think he has the temperament to play at No.10 just yet.
Fleckie’s prediction: The Sharks are just too strong up front and should take the Force. They will stutter, it won’t be pretty – but the Sharks to win by five points.
LIONS v BRUMBIES:
Saturday, March 21 – 5pm
The Lions were poor against the Stormers. We always knew they would score some tries this year, but also leak a few five-pointers in the process.
At one stage, however, things looked a bit dire for the Stormers. They conceded two early tries against the run of play, but then, suddenly, things clicked for them and the Lions went down heavily.
To top things off, there seems to be some major off-field troubles in their camp, too, which is a shame as Loffie Eloff had always targeted this season as his ‘year-three’ of his three-year plan.
The Brumbies, as I had predicted, are nearly the force they once were. With Giteau back in Canberra in 2010, they will be very dangerous, but the presence of senior pros like George Smith and Stirling Mortlock are a major boost for them this season.
Fleckie’s prediction: Normally teams under pressure – both on and off the field – can rally and fight back. But I can’t see the Lions doing this. The Brumbies flyers will like things on the Highveld and they will win by at least ten points.
Until next week,
Fleckie
PS. Join the iafrica.com/rugby365 tipping competition and take on myself and the rest of the guys at Primedia Online in our 2009 Super 14 prediction competition. Click HERE now to enter!
