Fleckie's Round Eight predictions...
rugby365.com columnist Robbie Fleck is backing the Bulls to bounce back against the Crusaders in Super 14 action this weekend. Read his exclusive views and Super 14 predictions right here on the world’s best website, rugby365!
Last week I commented on how unpredictable the Super 14 had been up till then in 2009 and the Round Seven results once again proved that my assertion was indeed correct.
Let’s take the Bulls’ loss to the Highlanders as an example.
The only unbeaten team in the competition (the Bulls) went up against a side that was lurking mid-table (the Highlanders), despite having beaten the Crusaders a few weeks before – who would you have picked to win?!
What the Highlanders did do, however, was get on top of the much-vaunted Bulls pack early on and not allow them back into the match. The Bulls do not like being dictated to, if a team stands up physically to them, and they did not enjoy it out there against the Highlanders at all. They like to be the ones squeezing the life out of the opposition, not the other way round!
If I ever had to coach a team against the Bulls I would attack them up front and take away that mental edge. That is something, for instance, that the Stormers have failed to do in recent times. Sure, they have the firepower out wide to take the Bulls, but if the Bulls boss things up front it gives them a boost all over the field.
All is by no means lost for the Bulls and they are sitting fairly pretty in fourth place, and with a game in hand over all but two sides in the top eight. A win over the Crusaders this weekend – see my predictions below – will be a huge boost to their semifinal aspirations.
The Bulls’ woes from last week aside, the Chiefs are without doubt the form team in the 2009 Super 14 at the moment.
They have smashed two very decent teams – the Blues and the Reds – over the past fortnight, but, like most of the New Zealand teams this year, they remain plagued by inconsistency. Anybody remember their loss to the Sharks at home?!
Still, they are a dangerous team. They have a fantastic, well-balanced back row (Sione Lauaki, Tanerau Latimer and Liam Messam) and probably the best back three in the competition (Muliaina, Masaga and Sivivatu), but a lot of their game revolves around the form and fitness of Stephen Donald and Richard Kahui.
I had a bit to say about Donald earlier in the competition, but if he keeps playing consistently brilliant rugby, then I will happily concede that I got it wrong a few weeks ago!
The key for the Chiefs though is the ability of their tight five to secure enough decent, front foot ball to allow the Lauakis in their line-up to win those all-important collisions and then for Donald and Kahui to get on the front foot and get the ball out wide to the Sivivatus in their line-up.
Some people have emailed me asking if I think the Chiefs can win the Super 14…
On current form, it would be had to write them off, but unless they get a home semifinal and avoid the Bulls and the Sharks, then I cannot see them picking up any silverware.
The Sharks and the Bulls have powerful tight fives and they just will not afford the Chiefs easy ball and thereby a free reign to the likes of Mils Muliaina, Lelia Masaga and Sitiveni Sivivatu.
Fleckie’s Week Eight predictions:
CRUSADERS v BULLS:
Friday, April 3 – 8.35am
The Crusaders are showing signs of a resurgance. It might be baby steps at this stage, but it’s a step in the right direction nonetheless, as they showed by beating the Stormers in a game that will not exactly go down as a classic!
In the past, they have always been able to stand up to the Bulls, even in Pretoria, and I expect them to do the same this weekend, but – for once – I don’t actually believe they have enough out wide to stretch the Bulls.
Casey Laulala has been a one-man show all season long – backed up to a degree by Leon MacDonald – whereas for the Bulls, Fourie du Preez, Morné Steyn and Zane Kirchner have all had their moments, whilst Wynand Olivier is arguably South Africa’s form inside back.
Fleckie’s prediction: I said last week the Stormers had a golden chance to beat the Crusaders on their own patch and I will say the same about the Bulls this week… They need to get on top of the Crusaders early on and with star men Victor Matfield and Bryan Habana back in the mix, I am tipping the Bulls by five points.
FORCE v REDS:
Friday, April 3 – 1.05pm
I backed the Reds last week, but, sadly, they ran into a very rampant Chiefs team and they went down heavily.
Still, despite shipping 50 points, they scored 26 points themselves – proving once again how good their style of rugby is. However, what they need to do is understand that attractive rugby isn’t always the best rugby to play – something that my UCT side learnt during the 2009 Varsity Cup.
As a player, I some times made the same mistakes, but there is a time and a place for that fancy move, outrageous pass or just plain brilliant bit of rugby. Once a team like the Reds – or UCT! – gets that right, well, then they will become a better side.
The Force, on the other hand, rely a bit more on structure under the guidance of John Mitchell. They also have the brilliance of Matt Giteau to convert that structure into points and if they make a strong start, the Reds might just panic a bit after last week’s heavy loss.
Fleckie’s prediction: I have not lost faith in the Reds, but I am going with my head this week, and not my heart. A Matt Giteau-inspired Force to shade the Reds by eight or more in a high-scoring encounter.
CHIEFS v LIONS:
Saturday, April 4 – 8.35am
The Chiefs will be on a high this week – and why not? Having put 60 points past the Blues two weeks ago, and then 50 points on the Reds, they are the in-form side in the 2009 Super 14 and the team to beat!
I have spoken about the influence of Kahui and their brilliant back three, whereas the Lions have battled some off-field troubles of late and they could be even a bit lower after their loss to the Hurricanes – it was a game they could have won, if they had the luck going their way.
Also, don’t under-estimate that travel bug… Despite the Sharks and the Bulls proving me wrong, by winning their opening tour matches, that first away game is always the hardest of any tour.
Fleckie’s prediction: I’m expecting big points here – the Chiefs by 20.
WARATAHS v STORMERS:
Saturday, April 4 – 10.40am
Traditionally, the Stormers have done pretty well in Sydney – in fact, the last game between these two sides in this city, in 2007, produced a 16-10 win for the visitors.
In my day as a Stormers player we loved touring Sydney. We always used to stay in Manly, with the beach at door-step and in many ways staying there seemed to remind the guys of Cape Town.
I think the Waratahs and Stormers are similar teams. Both have capable packs – that don’t tend to dominate – but they have excellent loose forwards and exciting runners in the backline.
Both teams also boast very tight defences and the Stormers (110 points) and the ‘Tahs (115 – along with the Bulls) have conceded the fewest number of points this season to date. The major difference at the moment, however is that whilst the Waratahs have lost just two matches in seven starts, the Stormers have won only two matches in six starts. The ‘Tahs are second on the log and the Stormers are a lowly 10th.
I keep thinking the Stormers will click, and I am still waiting, but if they lose this game to the Waratahs it could suddenly become a long season for the Capetonians…
Fleckie’s prediction: This match will be close. In fact, since 1999 (when the Stormers dropped the ‘Western’ part of their name – ed.), the Stormers have played the ‘Tahs five times in Sydney; winning three times and losing twice. The Waratahs, however, win the average scoreline over those encounters – 23-20 – and I am expecting a similar scoreline this time around. The ‘Tahs by fewer than five points.
CHEETAHS v BRUMBIES:
Saturday, April 4 – 3pm
I think the Cheetahs will be happy and relieved to be back in Bloemfontein after a truly atrocious tour Down Under.
However, life does not get much easier for them with the Brumbies in wait this week, followed by games against the Sharks, the Chiefs, the Crusaders, the Bulls and the Stormers. Of their last six matches, all but one (against the Bulls) is at home, so at least they will have some home support to rely on.
Whether anybody would want to support them at this stage is another point entirely… I feel sorry for them though, Naka Drotske and his players are trying hard, but they just do not have the depth and the money of the other South African franchises.
The Brumbies have also had a tough time of it, but for other reasons.
They have lost both their matches in SA thus far, but the accident involving their lock Shawn Mackay would have been a terrible shock to everyone. I read on rugby365 that he had a successful operation, so hopefully that will inspire his teammates to put one last bit of effort in before heading home.
Fleckie’s prediction: The Brumbies have a few injury worries, but Stirling Mortlock is back and will, as always make a big difference. I’m backing the visitors to edge this one by five points.
SHARKS v HURRICANES:
Saturday, April 4 – 5.05pm
Interestingly, since 1999 (when the Sharks became ‘The Sharks’, dropping the ‘Coastal’ from their name – ed.) the Hurricanes and the Sharks have met five times in South Africa.
Of those five fixtures, four of them were in Durban, whilst one – in 1999 – was played in East London. The ‘Canes won that clash 34-18 in East London, but they have also beaten the Sharks twice in Durban.
Granted, their last win was in 2005, when the Sharks were going through a dip, but it proves my theory that the Hurricanes enjoy touring South Africa.
Durban, of course, is a great place to tour – much like Cape Town and the guys are comfortable there and happy near the beach and all the other attractions that a sea-side city such as Durban has to offer. Of course, at the same time, those niceties can also be something of a distraction.
Fleckie’s prediction: Both teams will throw the ball around – as the Sharks tried to do against the Brumbies last week. The ‘Canes could get four tries if the game really opens up, but I can’t see them winning. Sharks by at least eight points.
‘Til next week,
Fleckie
PS. Join the iafrica.com/rugby365.com tipping competition and take on myself and the rest of the guys at Primedia Online in our 2009 Super 14 prediction competition. Click HERE now to enter!
