Fleckie's semifinal picks...

Former Springbok centre – and rugby365 columnist – Robbie Fleck looks ahead to an exciting final weekend of Super 14 league action, whilst also revealing his final predictions and picks for the semifinals.

I really am looking forward to the final round of Super 14 action; it’s been a hotly-contested tournament thus far and we’ve got one more weekend of exciting league action ahead of us before we can turn our attention to the play-offs.

Most matches this coming weekend will have a say on the final play-off spots and, as proud South Africans, we will be hoping that the Stormers and the Sharks both progress to the last four. Unfortunately, five does not go into four and the Stormers and Sharks could very well be slugging it out for that final spot come Saturday evening…

All but one of this weekend’s matches – Sharks v Chiefs – are derbies and two of them – Blues v Hurricanes and Reds v Waratahs – will have a huge affect on the Stormers and the Sharks’ semifinal prospects.

With that in mind, here are my predictions for this weekend and the semifinals:

BLUES v HURRICANES:
Friday, May 16 – 9.35am
Auckland

The Blues – who have always been a favourite of mine – have improved tremendously since their mid-season wobble.

I do, however, have a hang-up over the captaincy of Troy Flavell. Don’t get me wrong, Flavell is a great player and he looks to be a popular captain, but he blows hot and cold, which affects his players.

At the moment he is in good form and it’s no surprise to see the Blues back in form… I think Nick Evans dropping to fullback and Isa Nacewa moving up to flyhalf has also given them more structure to their play, with Evans then able to add some pace from the back.

The Blues have looked good up front this year – traditionally an area of weakness for the Hurricanes – but their backs have been a tad disappointing. However, games like this, with so much at stake, are normally won up front and that’s where I see the Blues holding an advantage.

Also, the Blues have it all to play for; they need that bonus point victory to have a chance of making the semifinals. The ‘Canes, meanwhile, need just a bonus point to force the Stormers and the Sharks to chase a bonus point win in their matches on Saturday. Complacency could be their biggest enemy.

Fleckie’s prediction: The Blues will win a high-scoring match, but I can’t see them stopping the Hurricanes from taking home those two bonus points – for losing by fewer than seven points and for scoring four tries. Those bonus points will make a huge difference in the final analysis come Saturday night.

FORCE v BRUMBIES:
Friday, May 16 – 1.35pm
Perth

It’s amazing how much of a difference Matt Giteau makes to the Force – as a playmaker, a goalkicker or just as an inspiration to those around him.

Force captain Nathan Sharpe is a superb leader – a different leader, for instance, to somebody like Flavell – and he has been instrumental, along with coach John Mitchell, in moulding this newish team into a well-drilled and proud franchise.

The Brumbies, meanwhile, are back in Australia after a tough few weeks in South Africa, but they gave it their all – losing narrowly to the Bulls and dominating possession against the Stormers.

They are not the Brumbies of old – who would be after losing Gregan, Larkham and Roff? – but their new players have bought into the Brumbies ethos and they will be a force again next year.

Fleckie’s prediction: Both teams are out of the running for semifinal places, but there is still plenty at stake in terms of Wallaby selection. It won’t be an easy match, and they will be tired after coming back from SA, but I am backing the Brumbies to edge the Force.

CRUSADERS v HIGHLANDERS:
Saturday, May 17 – 9.35am
Christchurch

Isn’t it great to see Dan Carter back in the mix? As a rugby fan, yes, but as a South African, no!

The Crusaders had their wobble against the Chiefs and even though they nearly made a meal of it against the Reds last week, that game was always going to be about getting their combinations back out on the park.

Over the years, Robbie Deans has been lauded as a great coach and rightly so. Whilst he does have plenty of big names to call upon, it’s more his ability to earmark young talent that separates him from the best. When Mehrtens was on his way out, he found Carter, when Mauger left he had found Stephen Brett – that’s the sign of a good manager.

It’s very similar to a guy like Alex Ferguson and the empire that he has built at Manchester United. A few years ago he sold David Beckham, but there was method in his madness – he had a guy like Keane who he felt suited his game better, plus he had just recruited a young Christiano Ronaldo.

Rugby is all about talent and commitment, but nothing is more important than combinations and that is what makes the Crusaders such a formidable team. I really cannot see them not winning the title in 2008.

The Highlanders, to their credit, have been playing some good rugby in recent weeks. They did well to bounce back after their heavy loss to the Bulls, running the Stormers close and beating the Cheetahs, but they are not a good team by New Zealand standards.

Fleckie’s prediction: There can be only one winner here – the Crusaders to pile on the points.

REDS v WARATAHS:
Saturday, May 17 – 11.40am
Brisbane

The Reds were outstanding last week and they really have impressed me this season. Under the innovative coaching of Phil Mooney they have become an exciting team to watch – a vast difference from the rigid Queensland we had become accustomed to under the tutelage of my old Bath coach ‘Knuckles’ Connolly.

They have a different dimension to their game this season – a bit like our UCT side I like to think! – and they love nothing more than keeping the ball off the deck and having a go. Maybe that’s why they have lost a few close ones this season, but I would much rather watch them than say the Bulls, the Lions or the Highlanders.

Sadly, I don’t think their adventure will be enough to trump the Waratahs, who have plenty at stake in this all-Australian Derby.

Ewen McKenzie is a superb coach; their pack has been outstanding this season, especially against the Stormers on Saturday, and it still seems odd that they have not chosen to renew his contract beyond this year.

Oddly enough, especially for an Australian team, their backs are not quite their strength, but they’ve got a very young backline, with Lote Tuqiri the only fully established international in the mix.

Fleckie’s prediction: Waratahs to win.

LIONS v STORMERS:
Saturday, May 17 – 3pm
Johannesburg

This is a dangerous one…

Traditionally, the Stormers have battled against the Lions. In fact, in my day, during the successful ‘Men in Black’ era, we never beat the Cats (as they were known back then) and there was always some niggle and/or controversy back then when we played!

The Stormers beat the Cats for the first time in 2002 and have not lost to them since, but they’re a different kettle of fish on their home patch – as the Chiefs found out last week.

They play an attractive brand of rugby, but their defence is frail. The Stormers, however, have the best defence in the Super 14 and I simply cannot see them conceding many tries on Saturday.

I have said this before, but Rassie and Brendan Venter deserve all the credit for the creating such a watertight defence and I hope the Springboks take something out of it into the international season.

It’s not the traditional drift defence or outside-in/rush defence, it’s more of a controlled, channel-type defence with a late shift – it’s very much in a rugby league mould. Two players commit to a ruck and the rest fan out and target the next ruck, whilst every player trusts and believes in the guy on his outside to make his tackle. It’s a very intelligent type of defence and it’s also very similar to the way the Waratahs defend.

Fleckie’s prediction: The Stormers will in all probability need to win and claim a four-try bonus point to have a chance of making the semifinals, but they must worry about the win first – the bonus point will take care of itself. Stormers to win.

CHEETAHS v BULLS:
Saturday, May 17 – 5.05pm
Bloemfontein

Don’t expect to see a full stadium in Bloemfontein on Saturday as two disappointing sides go head-to-head.

The Bulls have gone from champs to chumps this year and they need to make changes ahead of next season, but – despite their results this season – I do think the Cheetahs are on the right track under Naka Drotské.

This could become something of a Currie Cup grudge match as the current champions take on the former champions, but don’t expect to see a very expansive and exciting match.

Fleckie’s prediction: The Bulls to win…

SHARKS v CHIEFS:
Saturday, May 17 – 7.10pm
Durban

This is another big game and the Sharks are fortunate to go out there knowing exactly what they need to do in order to make the semifinals.

They proved a point against the Cheetahs last week, but it’s all to play for once again this weekend and they will find themselves up against a Chiefs side no doubt still licking its wounds after losing to the Lions.

Fleckie’s prediction: The Chiefs have a few injury worries to deal with and they are not the greatest tourists at the best of times either, so one would expect the Sharks to come out with a win. That four-try bonus point, however, could just have the final say when it comes to semifinal places.

If my predictions come true, my semifinal line-up would look as follows:
(1) Crusaders
(2) Waratahs
(3) Hurricanes
(4) Stormers

* Saturday night will also see the announcement of Peter de Villiers’ first-ever Springbok squad.

De Villiers will be announcing quite a big squad, but it depends on which South African teams make the semifinals. If the Stormers and/or the Sharks make it, a squad without players from those teams will be announced – at the request of Rassie Erasmus and Dick Muir, who do not want their players worrying about Bok selection.

When I was a player squad announcements did not worry me in the least. In fact, when I was playing, making a Springbok squad would often spur me on to perform better in order to justify my selection.

However, I am probably the wrong guy to ask about things like this – not much bothered me as a player… I am sure there will be a few nervous players out there, although I am pretty sure most guys should have an inkling about whether they’re in the mix or not.

Anyhow, next week I will take a look at De Villiers’s squad and give my views on his selections… or non-selections.

Enjoy the weekend’s rugby,
Fleckie

* Email Fleckie at rugby365@365digital.co.za with your Super 14 picks for this week!

* Fleckie’s ‘Last Word’ will appear weekly on rugby365.com and iafrica.com, so log on next week for more Super 14 views and predictions.