Fleck's Bok barometer

After 11 weeks of Super 14 action, rugby365 columnist Robbie Fleck tries his hand as a Springbok selector (yes, overseas players are welcome), whilst also looking ahead at Round 12 of the tournament and the final fight for the four play-off places.

As the Super 14 nears its business-end, and with Six Nations champions Wales already starting their June tour preparations, I thought it prudent to look ahead, briefly, to South Africa’s June Tests and possible selection options for new Bok coach Peter de Villiers.

(I will go into more selection detail closer to the start of the international season, but it’s nice to have a look at the selection options at this stage of the season.)

Obviously, a lot depends on the fitness of some players come June – Schalk Burger and Tonderai Chavhanga are two major worries – but they have played enough Super 14 rugby and, on form, they would be part of my selection mix come the international season.

The major issue at this stage is the debate surrounding overseas-based Springboks. Aside from the fact that the powers that be at SA Rugby once again seem to have their wires crossed over a possible ‘quota’ of overseas-based Boks, the question of picking players from abroad is a total non-issue for me.

Aside from possible legal implications of not picking the best people for the job at hand – would this happen in the business world? – I have two points to make over the situation:
(1) The reality is that this is very much a financial decision for players to make. Players have shorter lifespans at the top of their game these days and with the game professional, and so much money on offer, it is hard to expect players to remain loyal. It doesn’t happen in football, why should it happen in rugby?

(2) Players that move abroad tend to come back for it – as players and as people. They play with and against some of the best players in the world in Europe, they play under the best coaches and they get out of their comfort zones, forcing them to think for themselves, too. I played at Bath late in my career, I wish I had spent a season or two in France as a 24-or-25-year-old in order to become more physical.

I don’t agree with the theory that picking overseas-based players would weaken our domestic game – have you watched the Currie Cup lately? How many top Springboks play Currie Cup rugby these days? It’s a tournament on its way out, and don’t even get me started on the Vodacom Cup – it’s time it made way for an expanded club competition. We all saw how successful the Varsity Cup was this year.

I see New Zealand are now talking of allowing their top players to enjoy sabbaticals abroad; they are also under pressure to change their rulings of picking overseas-based players. Why? Well, wouldn’t you also change your rulings when the likes of Hayman, Jack, McCaw, Kelleher, Carter, McAlister and Howlett start heading abroad?

As we continue to grapple with this issue of whether or not overseas-based players should be eligible for Bok selection, I also think we should make more of an effort to get foreigners playing in South Africa. Look at the effect that Tony Brown has had on the Stormers thus far – and not just from a playing point of view? And how about the likes of Michalak, Brown, Roumat and Lacroix at the Sharks over the years? Imagine how much Ross Skeate and Andries Bekker would learn from Danny Grewcock spending a season in Cape Town? The possibilities are endless.

The funny thing is, even with all the talk of limiting the overseas-based players in the Bok side I would, at this stage, pick just three: John Smit, Victor Matfield and Butch James.

Building on what Jake White achieved last year will be very important for De Villiers in 2008. The usual suspects pick themselves – Smit, Bakkies, Matfield, Smith, Schalk, Spies, Fourie, Butch, Habana and De Villiers – but the form of Brian Mujati, ‘Beast’ Mtawarira, Tonderai Chavhanga, Conrad Jantjes and Zane Kirchner cannot be ignored.

At the same time, the lack of form shown by CJ van der Linde, BJ Botha and JP Pietersen is worrying, but I would still pick and out of sorts Frans Steyn, who has been a victim of a poor Sharks team and an inconsistent selection policy.

Luke Watson came close to making my side, but last year’s incumbents just sneak in ahead of him – it’s hard to drop a guy like Wikus van Heerden. Luke’s time will come, however, if he keeps on performing like he has up until now.

With that in mind, here is my ideal Bok team to face Wales: 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 Tonderai Chavhanga, 13 Jean de Villiers, 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Butch James, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Brian Mujati, 2 John Smit (captain), 1 Heinke van der Merwe.
Replacements: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 ‘Beast’ Mtawarira, 18 Johann Muller, 19 Ryan Kankowski, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Peter Grant, 22 Zane Kirchner.

Additional squad members: Gürthro Steenkamp, Andries Bekker, Wikus van Heerden, Jaque Fourie.

Right, onto the Super 14 then.

It wasn’t the best of weekends from a South African point of view with the Sharks losing another one on the road and the Cheetahs going down at home to the Hurricanes. The Stormers, however, kept up their recent run of form and the Lions very nearly stole a win in Canberra of all places.

The form, or rather lack thereof, of the Sharks is a worry. They are such a talented side, yet they are not playing to their true potential. Even more worrying, however, is that a home semifinal seems to be slipping away from them, meaning they could have to travel to Christchurch, Hamilton or Sydney for an away semifinal – hardly an ideal scenario at the best of times.

So, what is wrong with the men from Durban then? Well, they have not been at their best in 2008 and even though they were winning ‘ugly’, they have come up against two good teams in recent weeks – the Brumbies and ‘Tahs – who have not let them get away with any mistakes or below-par performances.

I know I rated them as the team to beat in the 2008 Super 14, but I have been forced to change my tune now – they will be lucky to make the semifinals.

The Stormers are shaping up as South Africa’s best hope at this stage and they did their new-found status no harm with a hard-fought 26-16 win over the Highlanders on Saturday.

Some people are saying the lack of a bonus point could come back and haunt them, but they secured a win – a bare minimum against a team fighting hard to save face after a very disappointing showing the week before. Make no mistake, this was another good win by the Stormers; they are by no means out of it.

Losing Schalk Burger for the rest of the tournament is a big blow, as it would be for any side, but injuries are a reality in a competition like this. More often than not, the team that copes best with these setbacks is the team that tends to be competitive come the end of the season.

I believe the Stormers can win without Schalk, as they did earlier this season, and the coaching staff need to get behind Robbie Diack and Pieter Myburgh and forget about Schalk. (Remember, too, how well the Boks did without Schalk at the World Cup last year? Sometimes, the loss of a great player has a galvinising effect on a team.)

My predictions for the weekend:

CRUSADERS v SHARKS:
Friday, May 2 – 9.35am
Christchurch

The Crusaders have had their dip already, whilst the Sharks are currently struggling after two successive losses on the road. The Crusaders know the Sharks will be a threat come the play-offs – especially at home – and they will look to shut them out now.

Fleckie’s prediction: The Crusaders to have too much for a punch-drunk Sharks team.

REDS v BLUES:
Friday, May 2 – 11.40am
Brisbane

This could be a great match and there’s a lot of history between these two sides, dating all the way back to the first-ever Super 12 back in 1996. The Reds – who have not beaten the Blues since 2004 – are a team on the up and came very close to upsetting an in-form Chiefs team.

Fleckie’s prediction: I’m going with my gut feel here – Reds to edge the Blues.

CHEETAHS v HIGHLANDERS
Friday, May 2 – 7.10pm
Bloemfontein

After last week’s loss to the Hurricanes, the Cheetahs return to Bloemfontein to face fellow whipping boys, the Highlanders. The Highlanders did well against the Stormers last week, after their hiding at the hands of the Bulls, but this could be a bridge too far for them.

Fleckie’s prediction: Cheetahs to win… only just…

HURRICANES v LIONS
Saturday, May 3 – 9.35am
Wellington

The Lions have had a long tour of Australasia and the Hurricanes will be happy to be back at home after some great results against the Bulls and the Cheetahs.

Fleckie’s prediction: The Lions will be particularly fragile after their heartbreaking loss to the Brumbies, whilst the Hurricanes will be on a high – the ‘Canes by quite a few!

FORCE v CHIEFS:
Saturday, May 3 – 11.40am
Perth

The Force had a week off after their loss to the Reds the previous week and they have Matt Giteau back in the mix, which will give them a lot more direction.

I doubt, however, that it will be enough against the speed and power of Muliaina, Masaga, Sivivatu and Kahui. (Thank goodness I never had to defend against a backline like that!)

Fleckie’s prediction: Chiefs to win.

BULLS v WARATAHS
Saturday, May 3 – 3pm
Pretoria

The Bulls, because of their forward power, should beat most Australian teams – even an in-form Waratahs side.

The men from Pretoria will also be on a high after their good win over the Highlanders and they have Fourie du Preez back in the mix, too.

Fleckie’s prediction: Yes, the Waratahs are playing some good rugby, but I think the Bulls will be too strong for them up front. Bulls to edge this encounter.

STORMERS v BRUMBIES:
Saturday, May 3 – 5.05pm
Cape Town

This should be the game of the weekend between two positive and well-coached teams. They both like playing expansive rugby and both teams still have a chance of making the semifinals, which should bring out the best in them.

Fleckie’s prediction: Stormers to scrape home in a high-scoring match.

Until next week,
Robbie Fleck

* Email Fleckie at rugby365@365digital.co.za with your Super 14 picks for this week!

* Fleckie’s ‘Last Word’ will appear weekly on rugby365.com and iafrica.com, so log on next week for more Super 14 views and predictions.