It all points to New Zealand
rugby365 columnist Robbie Fleck is on the move again, but he remembered to take his laptop with him in order to make his prediction for this weekend’s Tri-Nations finale…
Hello from Scotland, where I am currently on tour with the South African Legends team for the annual Golden Oldies World Festival!
It’s been a great trip so far, plenty of catching up with old mates and, of course, having the odd beer, too…
The rugby’s been good – why else am I here? – I must say, playing in tournaments like these makes one yearn a bit for the ‘good ol’ days’. Then again, when you wake up the next morning with a few aches, pains and bruises, well, then retirement just seems the better option!
Rugby aside, we’ve managed to get in a bit of golf, too – at St Andrews no less – and we’ve also done a few coaching clinics with some of the local youngsters.
The emphasis is on fun when it comes to tournaments like these and that is something we are trying to achieve at the Cape Town Tens next year February. I have, of course, been doing some marketing for the Tens and hopefully a few of the guys will take my advice and sign up for that fantastic 10-a-side tournament in the Mother City.
My return to ‘competitive’ rugby aside, there is some other rugby on the go this weekend, with the Wallabies hosting the All Blacks in the final match of the 2008 Tri-Nations.
Unfortunately it might as well be billed as the 2008 Tri-Nations Final, with these two teams battling it out for the ultimate bragging rights this season. It’s a pity that the Springboks are not involved in the final analysis, but they have their own worries at the moment – more of that later!
Looking at this weekend, I don’t expect the Wallabies to take another 50-point drubbing. Yes, the Boks outplayed them at Ellis Park, but Robbie Deans is too smart a rugby man to allow his team to under-prepared – especially at home.
The Wallabies will be better, of that I have no doubt, especially with Stephen Moore back at hooker, Al Baxter in for Matt Dunning at tighthead, Nathan Sharpe in at lock, George Smith restored to the No.7 shirt and Ryan Cross coming in for Timana Tahu at centre. Stirling Mortlock will shore up that crucial No.12 channel and he shouldn’t have too many worries with a straight-running opponent in Ma’a Nonu opposite him. (Imagine if the ABs had a more effective No.12?)
The battle between Smith and McCaw will be a ferocious one on the ground and the line-out fight between Sharpe and Horwill and Williams and Thorn should be a beauty, too. The All Blacks smashed the Wallabies at line-out time the last time these two sides met, which was something of a turnaround for the books considering New Zealand’s line-out woes in the past few seasons.
Neither scrumhalves are particularly brilliant in my opinion – how lucky are we in South Africa to have Fourie du Preez, Ricky Januarie and Ruan Pienaar? – but the battle at No.10 could just turn out to the real highlight this weekend.
Dan Carter is close to being the best player on the planet – McCaw is probably the only guy who could challenge him for that title – and Matt Giteau has been pretty special this season. Both players hold the key to their country’s respective attacking hopes, but Carter’s control – provided he gets the ball from his forwards – could decide the game.
New Zealand have kept things pretty tight this year and why not? If you have a guy like Carter pulling the strings at first five-eighth, fight like hell to get him the ball up front and watch him work his magic!
Jake White’s Boks proved last year how doing the basics is what wins you World Cups and if they continue to keep things simple on Saturday, I cannot see the Wallabies beating them and winning the Tri-Nations – even though this match is in Brisbane.
Before I sign off this week, I guess I have to mention the whole alleged Peter de Villiers sex-tape scandal… and, to be honest, I do not know enough to comment on all the various accusations and conspiracy theories doing their rounds.
What I will say is this; we don’t need another rugby scandal in our country.
It’s a pity that allegations of this sort have cropped up and I can only hope that any wrong-doers in this bizarre controversy are found out and punished. Then, hopefully, we can get back to talking and writing about the actual game itslef – after all that’s why love this sport with the odd-shaped ball, isn’t it?
Fleckie’s weekend prediction: All Blacks to win this match and the 2008 Tri-Nations. They might not have looked a champion team initially, and I still don’t rate this as the best New Zealand team in recent years, but the presence of Richie McCaw and Dan Carter is just too compelling.
Until next week,
Robbie
* Email Fleckie at rugby365@365digital.co.za with any comments.
* Fleckie’s ‘Last Word’ will appear weekly on rugby365.com and iafrica.com, so log on next week for more exclusive views from him!
