Predict at your peril

rugby365.com columnist Robbie Fleck believes the 2009 Super 14 has been the most unpredictable of all Super Rugby tournaments thus far. And he’s loving it!

Anybody fancy betting their hard-earned wages in this, Round Seven of the 2009 Super 14?

I can safely say the 2009 tournament has been the most unpredictable yet since the inception of Super Rugby in the 1990s.

Last week, I went against the Bulls and I was wrong… I went for the Crusaders and I was correct, but that was about it – with the Lions proving me wrong and the Blues letting me down badly.

So, where do I start this week?!

Well, first things first; I must say, I am loving this unpredictable nature of the tournament. It’s almost gone full circle since the first year of Super 12 action in 1996 when the only constant was that the SA sides would get smashed in New Zealand and Australia and the Kiwi sides would dominate.

That was easy…

In between all of that, some SA sides threatened – the Sharks and the Stormers – but always seemed to end up short, whereas the Brumbies proved they were a real force. That is, until the Crusaders took over the mantle of Super Rugby Kings by racking up title after title, after title…

So where do we stand now?

Well, the SA teams are winning away more regularly – heck, the Bulls were crowned champions in 2007! This year, in particular, the Bulls and the Sharks have looked sharp, but if I was a betting man I would have been forced to sell my house by now.

For instance, last week logic dictated that the Brumbies would go to Johannesburg and smash a Lions side that took 50 points from the Stormers and were seemingly in disarray off the field.

What did they go and do? They took the fight to the Brumbies, with Ernst Joubert and Jaque Fourie leading the charge, and they beat them. They beat them when most high-rolling betting folks would easily have put down R1-million at odds of 2/1, happy in the knowledge that they would easily double their money.

Regular readers of this column – and also those that know me well – will know that I am a fan of the J&B Met.

Let’s say Horse Chestnut was running the main race against the local donkey – who would you back? Horse Chestnut, of course… but then imagine Horse Chestnut letting you down and losing to a donkey that had not won a race in its life. You get my drift?

My Week Seven predictions:

BLUES v WARATAHS:
Friday, March 27 – 8.35am

The ‘Tahs were one of my semifinal picks earlier in the season, but I might need to re-address that prediction of mine.

They are a good side, but I think inexperience cost them against the more savvy Crusaders last week. Unfortunately for them, it does not get any easier this week, especially playing in New Zealand; where, traditionally, they don’t do too well.

The Blues, however, have plenty to prove after their hammering at the hands of the Chiefs last week. They are unpredictable, we all know that, but they shipped 50 points for the second time this season – which is not ideal for any side.

I expect them to regroup, they’re too good a side not to, but they need to shake off their inconsistency this season before it is too late.

Fleckie’s prediction: Blues by five points.

HIGHLANDERS v BULLS:
Saturday, March 28 – 6.30am

The Bulls are one of the form sides of the Super 14 – along with the Sharks.

They are not normally the best of tourists, but they seem to be enjoying themselves in Australasia which does not augur well for their opponents.

Fleckie’s prediction: The Bulls have an opportunity to emulate the Sharks on their tour and lay down a serious marker as Super 14 semifinal contenders. The Bulls by more than five.

CRUSADERS v STORMERS:
Saturday, March 28 – 8.35am

This is not the same Crusaders team of old, but then again they went on and beat the Waratahs in Sydney last week – which, itself, is no mean feat.

They are a tough outfit at home, but the Stormers – if on song – can definitely go out there and beat the multiple championship-winning Crusaders.

I have always rated this Stormers team and if they play to their true potential not many teams will be able to stop them. However, they need to realise this potential of theirs and use the many star players they have at their disposal.

Fleckie’s prediction: An opportunity to beat the Crusaders on their own patch does not come around that often. The Stormers need to use it. I am picking them to edge out the ‘Red and Blacks’ by two/three points.

REDS v CHIEFS:
Saturday, March 28 – 11.05am

The in-form Chiefs will travel to Brisbane hoping to prove that their destruction of the Blues was no fluke.

Up against them, however, is a technically efficient and very smart team in the shape of the Reds, who proved against the Sharks two weeks ago what they can do.

Sure, the Sharks were not quite on-song that day but the Reds took advantage of that and despite lacking physically they took the game to the Sharks.

The Chiefs are a physical side, and it’s a year too early for the Reds to compete with stronger teams on a regular basis – but don’t write off these guys, they play smart rugby and it’s great to see that kind of rugby being rewarded.

Fleckie’s prediction: Regular readers will know of my affinity towards this exciting Reds team, who let the ball do the work for them. I am hoping rugby will win here – and going with my heart! The Reds to squeak it by five.

SHARKS v BRUMBIES:
Saturday, March 28 – 5pm

The Sharks did really well on their road trip, losing just once, and they will be stronger – as always – at the ‘Shark Tank’.

Sure, having been forced to travel back home and then front up immediately will make them vulnerable, but travelling back to South Africa is a lot easier then heading over to Australasia and we all saw how well they fared in their first away game.

The Brumbies have been in SA for an extra week or so, but they have a few injuries after their loss to the Lions and I really can’t see them shocking the Sharks in Durban.

Fleckie’s prediction: I can’t see the Sharks losing another match in 2009 – at least not until the play-offs! Sharks by eight or more.

LIONS v HURRICANES:
Saturday, March 28 – 7.10pm

Can lightning strike twice? I think not, but then again you never know…

The Lions certainly overcame all odds to beat the Brumbies last week, but against the unpredictable – and star-studded – ‘Canes you never know.

Fleckie’s prediction: The Hurricanes love touring South Africa; the conditions here suit them – and their approach – and they have plenty of support, too. I am backing them by eight points.

Enjoy the weekend’s rugby,
Fleckie

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