Super 14 is value for money
rugby365 columnist Robbie Fleck this week tells us why he feels the Super 14 is value for money and also reveals who he feels will be the top four teams in the play-offs!
The Super 14 so far has been highly entertaining with the regulars at the top… with the only real disappointment being the Bulls. I thought the Bulls had made some progress in their last two games on tour, but last week they proved once again how poor they are and how inept they are at tackling the new laws. It seems like some people are just not ready for change!
Looking at the Top four teams I must say there won’t be major changes going into the play-offs, apart from the Waratahs whom I feel could come up short.
The Crusaders, as I mentioned last week, is an unbelievable side that even through resting several players can still win comfortably. They face a tough one against the Chiefs this week, without the likes of Dan Carter and with a ginger looking Stephen Brett. Overall they are a quality side and they will go right through to the end with or without injuries.
The Sharks, again, haven’t fired and still haven’t played the rugby we saw them play last year. They are still scraping through on average performances, but I believe they will be on fire closer to the play offs. Now, with Francois Steyn playing at No.13 – who I still believe he is the best No.12 in the country – has made a significant difference to the side with his direct running. Sharks to be there for a home semi.
The Hurricanes were very impressive in their win against the Bulls last week. They will be there come semi time and have in the past successfully shown that their intent to win this competition. They’ve got a quality loose trio, they’ve got quality backs and devastating runners in terms of Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith. The Canes have a solid coach and have built up over the last three/four years a quality outfit and deserve to be there in the final four.
I’ve always felt that the Waratahs, have a solid team with quality individuals, but they’ve just never really gelled and played to their true potential … even though they were in the semi’s in 2002, 2005 and 2006). This year they haven’t really fired and I think they will be overtaken by the Stormers, based on last weekend’s performance.
The Stormers were hugely impressive for me and we spoke briefly about their tight five last week which is really where the game against the Cheetahs was won. I thought the Stormers loose trio played well and for the first time their backs played collectively as a unit. The back three dominated and it looks like the combination between Peter Grant, Gcobani Bobo and Jean de Villiers finally came to fruition. They finally started to read each other properly, the hands were going through nicely and they ran well … and for once it didn’t need Tony Brown to make the difference. Peter Grant was the general and suddenly this Stormers side started to look the complete article.
But overall the South African sides have been pretty disappointing.
We find ourselves again not adapting to the new laws quick enough and by the time the semis come, it will be too late for most. It is going to take us a year to adapt as traditionally we’ve always been a year off the pace when it comes to innovation and adapting to new laws. Next year will be our year. If the laws stay the same the SA sides will pick up their game and will be once again be serious contenders at the top of the table.
We speak about coaches and I believe it is the coaches who are technically stronger and the ones have adapted and embraced the new laws are the ones who find themselves on top of the table.
You just have to look at Dick Muir and John Plumtree at the Sharks, and likewise Rassie Erasmus and his coaching staff at the Stormers. These are the guys who have adapted better to the new laws. They have a great understanding and appreciation of the ELVs and are technically better coaches than the rest of the South African coaches. That’s why they find themselves in the top half of the standings. Not to make excuses for the Cheetahs, but I do believe Naka Drotské is a good coach. He’s got an extremely young side and he’s lost a lot of players from last season which hasn’t helped his cause.
The other two teams have been a massive disappointment. They’ve had plenty of time. Why can Rassie Erasmus take the Stormers from a bottom-of-the-log aside to play-off contenders in the space of six months?
From a New Zealand point of view it has been a great campaign. They’ve always adapted to the new laws like a duck takes to water and have always been pioneers in modern, free flowing rugby.
Out of the three Test nations, the Kiwis have adapted the best. I think the laws perfectly suites the type of player that is bred out of New Zealand, in terms of guys who can carry the ball well, in terms of their physicality, in terms of their athleticism. These guys run off the ball, they run into space, keeping the ball alive which is crucial in terms of the ELVs. As soon as the ball hits the deck it’s a lottery.
If these new laws are taken into the Tri-Nations there’s going to be some serious problems facing the South African and Australian teams.
In terms of rugby for the spectators it’s been brilliant to watch, with some of the youngsters – some serious youngsters – coming through. Players like Lelia Masaga, Blues centre Benson Stanley and Duanne Vermeulen
In terms of the Australian sides we can only look at the Western Force and the Waratahs.
The Waratahs have traditionally been good, but they haven’t really performed.
The Force, with a mediocre squad, have adapted well and done well but I don’t see them as a real threat come the final four – in fact there won’t be any Australian sides in the final four.
Super 14 predictions for Week 10:
Chiefs v Crusaders:
This is going to be the first real challenge for the Crusaders, playing away against the Chiefs whom are traditionally very strong at home. The Chiefs always seem to pick their game up against the Crusaders. I said last week I felt the Crusaders will go through unbeaten and I’m going to stick with that, but if there ever was going to be a game they could lose, it was going to be this one. Still the Crusaders to win, but just!
Reds v Western Force:
We spoke about how impressive the Reds were when they came to South Africa, even though they lost some games but the Force are a quality outfit. Matt Giteau is going to be a huge loss for them however, up front in the tight five they’re going to have too much for the Reds. The Force to win.
Waratahs v Lions:
The Lions took an absolute hiding from the Crusaders last week. In the first half they played some quality rugby, but Waratahs at home will be too strong for them. Good win for the ‘Tahs against the Force last week. The Waratahs to win.
Brumbies v Sharks:
Brumbies beat the Blues and for the first time they showed what they are capable of. The Sharks, I still think are going to go through, and the first team they will come across that will beat them is the Crusaders in an away game. That is probably the only game they will lose. The Sharks tight five will be too strong for the Brumbies and the Sharks have built up a huge amount of confidence over the last two seasons. They’ll beat the Brumbies in Canberra.
Bulls v Highlanders:
This could be the game that the Bulls will win, even though they had an absolute shocker against the Hurricanes. Apart from those last two games on tour the Bulls haven’t shown me anything that they’ve moved on in terms of the news laws, but they are coming up against a very average Highlanders team. The Bulls to win at home.
Stormers v Hurricanes:
This is the game of the weekend and I’m extremely excited about watching this game and watching how the Stormers have advanced over the past couple of weeks. They are looking more like a mature/complete side every week and know exactly what is required from them on the pitch. At the beginning of the season the Stormers were a bunch of youngsters with a new coach and really no idea what was expected of them. As the tournament progressed they matured as players and finally got the belief that they can beat the bigger teams. However, they are coming up against a very, very strong Hurricanes side who have come off a big win against the Bulls. In saying that, I think the Stormers tight five will dominate and will dictate the game. The combination of Grant, Bobo and De Villiers, with Tony Brown coming off the bench, will again have a huge influence on the game. Conrad Jantjes for me is the form fullback in SA rugby and he’s controlling the back three which has freed up his wingers to play their natural game. The real threat from the Hurricanes is Ma’a Nonu and the loose trio. However, the Stormers at home will have too much and I’m looking forward to a packed Newlands. The Stormers to win.
Till next week,
Robbie Fleck
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