The World Cup is there for SA's taking
Former Springbok centre Robbie Fleck believes the 2007 Rugby World Cup is there for South Africa’s taking, but they need to learn from the demise of Australia and New Zealand in order to get past Argentina this week and secure a place in the final on October 20.
What a weekend of quarter-final action and what horrific predictions from me – yet again!
Frankly, my predictions have been pretty crap during the tournament so far, but, really – who would honestly have picked a semi-finals line-up of Argentina, England, France and South Africa a few short weeks ago? (Well, certainly not me!)
Aside from the initial shock, I really am disappointed that the Wallabies and the All Blacks are not in the final four. Without trying to be bias, I honestly believed that the three Tri-Nations teams would be in the final shake-up – now all we have left is the Springboks, who I believe should win the 2007 World Cup.
The 2007 Rugby World Cup is there for the Boks’ taking – the only way we won’t win it is if they actually throw it away like the Wallabies or the All Blacks did on Saturday.
It is very important that the Boks learn from what happened to Australia and New Zealand, both of whom produced easily their worst performances over the past few years in the quarter-finals. Australia’s performance was probably their worst in about 10 years (oh how they missed Steve Larkham), whilst New Zealand just went in there with the wrong gameplan on the day. Australia and New Zealand both cruised through the pool stages untroubled and I think that played a huge role in their losses, too.
I still maintain that England are not a good team, despite all the humble pie I was forced to eat on Saturday! They’re very weak out wide and they’re overly-reliant on that many Jonny Wilkinson. Yes, their scrum is good, but so too is the French scrum – in fact, all four teams in the semi-finals have good scrums.
Don’t get me wrong, England deserve credit for bouncing back from their 36-0 loss to us, but I can’t help agree with my old Bath coach ‘Knuckles’ Connolly – England’s World Cup title defence will come to an end this weekend! They’re an average team too reliant on one player and, to be honest, they don’t deserve to make the final.
England simply outmuscled and out-thought the Aussies, who normally are the most composed and cerebral team on the planet and it was strange to see guys like Dan Vickerman and George Gregan lose their cool. Gregan, however, had a big game and without him the scoreline could have been worse.
Looking at the All Blacks’ loss, like I said earlier, they were awful and their gameplan was all wrong. New Zealand have been the best team in the world since 2005 keeping the ball in hand and getting it wide to the likes of Rokocoko, Sivivatu and Howlett. Why they decided to kick the ball and take the French on at the pick-‘n-drive only they will know. If they had run at France they would have hammered them, as they did just last year on their end-of-season tour of Europe.
It was very out of character from a brilliant team (comparable to their World Cup team of 1995) and it cost them dearly – I see Graham Henry is already looking for a new job! – and it’s robbed the World Cup of a massive semi-final line-up… But having said that; it’s been good, for once, to see the ‘underdogs’ get into the last four and I think we will have two very exciting semi-final match-ups this Saturday and Sunday.
Looking back, briefly, at the Boks’ 37-20 win over Fiji, they very nearly fell into a similar trap to Australia and New Zealand against the Islanders, who lulled them into playing a risky, Sevens-type game.
The Springboks were 20-6 up, before throwing the ball around ‘willy-nilly’, which allowed Fiji to draw level at 20-20, but one always sensed that they would have too much for Fiji, provided that they kept the ball in hand and used their more dominant set-piece to good effect.
John Smit, as Jake White said afterwards, was magnificent once again and showed tremendous leadership in rallying his troops in the last quarter. I also thought John spoke very well afterwards – the way he praised Fiji and spoke about his own team – and he deserves all the credit that’s currently heading his way should the Boks go all the way.
Of course, too much talk this week of going all the way would be very irresponsible of the Springboks… Like I said last week, the Boks cannot afford to be complacent at this stage of the World Cup, the Pumas will be up for it on Sunday and France (or England!) will be as determined the following week should the Boks make it to the final.
South Africa and Argentina are two very similar teams; both like using the set-piece as a weapon and both teams’ defence is also very sound. Argentina, however, do like kicking more, with the official stats on rugby365.com indicating just that – Argentina kicked 38 times against Scotland, whereas South Africa kicked 27 times against Fiji.
The major thing for me this week is how well coached Argentina are. Marcelo Loffreda has prepared his team so well for this tournament; they have the right gameplan and play according to their strengths, and their attitude is spot-on, too. It’s all down to Loffreda and he is the best coach the Boks will be up against – making it something of a mini-battle for Jake White in a sense, too.
Aside from their obvious set-piece strengths, Argentina are a scrappy team – our biggest mistake would be to take them on and try to ‘out-scrap’ them. We need to hit them hard up front and dominate them in the set-piece, which would allow the ball to get to Bryan Habana, who is probably the major difference between the two sides.
Simply put, the Boks must perform like they did against England – their best showing at the World Cup thus far – when they did all their basics right and took their three chances on attack. A World Cup semi-final can be won on one moment of brilliance, or lost because of one error, so Sunday isn’t the time for the Boks to start chucking the ball around and chasing four tries. One intercept is all it takes for Argentina to get their noses ahead – the Boks need to keep things tight and take all the points on offer.
A guy like Frans Steyn would have learnt plenty from last week’s win over Fiji, most notably all about pressure situations. Frans, at just 20 years of age, has been an absolute revelation at this World Cup, but against Fiji he forced a few passes and tried to run the ball out in pressure situations.
Frans would have learnt from that, whilst having Butch on his inside would have been a major help, too. Butch has had a very good RWC campaign. His performance against England was obviously outstanding, but his influence on Sunday should not be understated either.
I’ve always thought Butch to be a great rugby player, but I guess even he would admit his susceptibility to losing concentration when it mattered most. At this World Cup, however, Butch seems to have matured overnight; his decision-making and execution has been excellent and I have no doubt in my mind that Eddie Jones has helped him in this regard. Jake White’s also had a lot of faith in Butch and I think that has also contributed significantly, and not only to Butch’s performances, but to some other guys too.
As I said earlier, the 2007 RWC is there for the Boks’ taking – only they can lose it. They will take one step closer against Argentina, but it won’t be plain-sailing for them…
For the record, Fleckie’s RWC predictions – The semi-finals:
France v England: This will be close… France just need to play their natural game and make sure that they negate Wilkinson. France are playing at home and they can more than match England up front; not to mention their abilities out wide, especially with someone as talented as Frédéric Michalak able to come off the bench. France will sneak in by two to seven points.
South Africa v Argentina: This will also be close. As I said above, semi-finals are often won by one act or through one inspired play. Don’t expect this match to be any different. South Africa, however, will have too much on the day for Argentina – a team they have never lost to – and win by three to seven points.
Enjoy the semi-finals,
Robbie Fleck
* Why not comment on Fleckie’s latest column on the sport365 FORUM?! Or email Fleckie at sport365@365digital.co.za with any comments.
* Fleckie’s ‘Last Word’ will appear weekly on sport365.co.za – and also on rugby365.com and iafrica.com – so log on next week for more of his exclusive opinions and predictions during the 2007 Rugby World Cup!
