Two weeks is a long time...

This week, rugby365s Robbie Fleck looks at the recent performances of the Stormers and the Sharks – South Africa’s two Super 14 semifinal hopefuls!

Who would have predicted just a few short weeks ago that the Crusaders and Sharks would both lose on the same weekend and that the Stormers would find themselves in fourth place with just four rounds of action remaining in the 2008 Super 14?

Well, I always thought the Stormers were a better side than their early results suggested, but I certainly did not expect the Crusaders to lose a match or the Sharks to go down to a below average Brumbies team.

The Sharks have not fired this season, but they have done pretty well up till now. Maybe their loss to the Brumbies at the weekend was the wake-up call they needed.

They didn’t play all that badly though. In fact, their performance in the first half was some of the best rugby I have seen from them this season. They off-loaded in the tackle, kept the ball alive and ran into space nicely – it was typical of a side coached by Dick Muir.

The Brumbies, to their credit, somehow managed to hang in there. They’re an average side, especially when compared to Brumbies sides of old, but it seems that teams in the process of changing coaches (the Brumbies and the Waratahs) seem to be responding quite well.

One thing the Brumbies did superbly well was hold onto the ball for phase after phase after phase…

There is a school of though – Wales coach Warren Gatland mentioned in first – that South African teams crumble if you deny them the ball by taking it through a multitude of phases.

The Brumbies of old under Eddie Jones proved that; each player knew his role and they would often take the ball well past 10 or 12 phases against South African teams before winning a penalty or breaking down the defence enough to score a try. However, of late, physical teams like the Bulls and the Sharks have managed to overpower their more cerebral Australian opponents through well-timed defensive hits.

On Saturday, however, the Brumbies held onto the ball at one stage for 22 phases – in the build-up to Julian Salvi’s try – and they had the Sharks under pressure for the entire second half. It was an intelligent performance from them.

I thought Freddie Michalak kicked a bit too much and with Frans Steyn continually being played out of position – at outside centre this time – I thought the Sharks missed the steadying influence of one Butch James. Yes, the word steady and Butch are hardly ever mentioned in the same breath, but Butchie was that calming influence the Sharks and the Springboks relied heavily on last year.

The Sharks also need to get Steyn back to inside centre sooner rather than later. I see he has been named at No.12 for the ‘Tahs game this weekend, but Brad Barritt has been bracketed in the centres, so Steyn could end up starting at outside centre again. I know players have to be flexible at this level, but when you have the best inside centre in world rugby at your disposal, you play him in the No.12 shirt. It’s as simple as that.

Whilst the Sharks lick their wounds after their first loss of the season, the Stormers have suddenly emerged as serious semifinal contenders and their run-in to the play-offs is a lot easier than the men from Durban.

The Sharks have to play the Waratahs and the Crusaders away from home, followed by the Cheetahs and the Chiefs at home. The Stormers, meanwhile, have the Highlanders at home this weekend, followed by the Brumbies and the Waratahs (also at home), before ending off their league campaign against the Lions at Ellis Park.

I expect the Stormers to win their final four matches. They are one of the form teams at the moment – along with the Chiefs and the Hurricanes – and they have plenty of confidence and a superb coaching staff headed up by Rassie Erasmus.

The Stormers have loads of talent and a well-balanced squad, but they now have self-belief in their own abilities, which makes them a different side from that which lost to the Bulls, Sharks and Crusaders earlier in the tournament.

Their win over the Hurricanes was a particularly good victory. In many ways the game on Saturday was similar to a Test match – in terms of defence and the pressure – and it showed just how good this side’s organisation is.

In many ways Rassie’s class of 2008 are similar to the ‘Men in Black’ of 1999, but I think they have a bit more structure than we did back then. We tended to do a lot more off the cuff on attack, making it a lot harder for our opposition to analyse us.

This Stormers side can still improve its attack somewhat and I don’t think the backs have quite hit their straps just yet. Defensively, however, they have been superb and they rely on their strength in the tackle and trusting their teammates. It reeks of Brendan Venter and Rassie Erasmus’s influence and it’s great to see a coaching unit have such an effect on a team.

Of course, when a team starts performing so well, individuals start putting their hands up for national selection. In my mind, the Stormers loose trio is the best in the country and I can see no reason why Luke Watson and Schalk Burger cannot play together at international level, too. At the same time young Francois Louw has been awesome this season and he shouldn’t have to remain in the shadows of his better-known back row partners.

Tonderai Chavhanga is another player that has put his hand up for Springbok selection and it really is a shame that he has been sidelined for the next few weeks. He is a joy to watch and a real threat on attack, but his absence has created another opportunity for young Dylan Des Fountain, who, himself, has missed out on selection due to concussion.

Next week I will take a look at some possible Springbok selections ahead of the June Tests, but for now, here are my Super 14 predictions for this weekend:

CRUSADERS v BLUES:
Friday, April 25 – 9.35am
Christchurch

The Crusaders will pick themselves up after losing to the Chiefs last week. Robbie Deans and co. will be working hard to correct their mistakes, although they will continue to miss Dan Carter – then again, which team wouldn’t miss that man?

The Blues have really disappointed me. I talked them up at the start of the season and they started strongly, only to fade in recent weeks. They are not out of play-off contention just yet, but a loss to the Crusaders will see them lose more ground to the likes of the Stormers and the Chiefs.

Fleckie’s prediction: The Crusaders to return to winning ways.

BRUMBIES v LIONS:
Friday, April 25 – 11.40am
Canberra

The Brumbies will be very confident after their win over the Sharks last week, plus they have Stirling Mortlock back to full fitness. Yes, it hasn’t been vintage Brumbies, but when they manage to get the ball through 20-odd phases, not many teams can compete with that.

The Lions have shown glimpses of their abilities this season – but it has always been with ball in hand. They need to sharpen up on defence especially against a team like the Brumbies, who love holding onto the ball.

Fleckie’s prediction: Brumbies to win and it could be some serious points for them!

CHIEFS v REDS:
Saturday, April 26 – 9.35am
Hamilton

When Stephen Donald fires, the Chiefs tend to do well. Throw in the likes of Mils Muliaina, Lelia Masaga, Richard Kahui and Sitiveni Sivivatu running off him and you have a serious team to deal with.

The Chiefs always seem to make a late surge for a place in the last four, but this is their best chance in some time to make the semifinals and few would bet against them.

The Reds are not the pushovers they were last season and they did very well to beat the Force last week. I didn’t think the Force played too badly, but they missed their chief playmaker Matt Giteau.

Fleckie’s prediction: The Chiefs to take this one – especially as they are at home.

WARATAHS v SHARKS:
Saturday, April 26 – 11.40am
Sydney

Along with the Crusaders-Blues game, this could be the game of the weekend between two sides in second (Sharks, 32 points) and third (Waratahs, 31 points) place on the Super 14 log.

Aside from the obvious things at stake here, remember, too, there is a lot of history between these sides; dating all the way back to 1998 when flank Wickus van Heerden (Bulls star Wikus’s uncle) was suspended for biting ‘Tahs prop Richard Harry.

Fleckie’s prediction: I can’t see the Sharks losing again this weekend, even against a class unit like the Waratahs. It is important that they get back to winning ways fast, especially with the small matter of a home semifinal up for grabs. Sharks to sneak this one.

CHEETAHS v HURRICANES:
Saturday, April 26 – 3pm
Kimberley

Playing in Kimberley will actually suit the Hurricanes and I would have been tempted to back the Cheetahs had they played in Bloemfontein.

The Hurricanes will miss Jerry Collins, but they showed some serious grit and determination against the Stormers and they should have too much class across the board for the Cheetahs.

The Cheetahs like to take the ball wide and the narrower pitch at Absa Park will suit the ‘Canes, who prefer a more direct approach – using the likes of Masoe and Nonu to punch holes in midfield, as they did against the Bulls a fortnight ago.

Fleckie’s prediction: Expect the Hurricanes to win a fast and high-paced game.

STORMERS v HIGHLANDERS:
Saturday, April 26 – 5pm
Cape Town

This is a great opportunity for the Stormers to rack up some serious points against a very, very poor New Zealand Super 14 team.

Without trying to put too much pressure on them, they should target a 30/40-point triumph and with their renewed confidence and recent form, why not?

Fleckie’s prediction: The Stormers to win – but they need to show no mercy like the Bulls did last week against this poor Highlanders side.

Until next week,
Robbie Fleck

* Email Fleckie at rugby365@365digital.co.za with your Super 14 picks for this week!

* Fleckie’s ‘Last Word’ will appear weekly on rugby365.com and iafrica.com, so log on next week for more Super 14 views and predictions.