Unrealistic expectations

Jake White never did it in four years. Nick Mallett was the last guy to do it – 10 years ago. Expecting Springbok coach Peter de Villiers to beat the All Blacks in their own backyard – in consecutive weeks – is unrealistic, according to rugby365 columnist Robbie Fleck.

The Springboks jetted off to Australasia on Thursday night full of confidence ahead of three tough Test matches against New Zealand (twice) and Australia.

The Boks can be fairly happy with their performances in the June Tests and the selection of the squad indicates that Peter de Villiers was happy with most of the players used against Wales and Italy.

There will always be unlucky players when it comes to selection – squads just never seem big enough! – and at the moment, I guess Tonderai Chavhanga could feel a bit hard done by.

Chavhanga was in great form during the Super 14, but he is a confidence player and his hamstring injury in the closing stages of the tournament seemed to nip his progress in the bud. Hamstrings are never easy things to get over – especially in the case of a ‘race-horse’ like Tonderai Chavhanga – and it could have been playing on his mind against the Welsh.

It is a pity though, as I think Chavhanga deserved a better shot than just two Tests against a mediocre Welsh side and his pace would have been ideal against the speedy Kiwi wings Down Under. Hopefully he will regain some of his confidence in the Currie Cup against the likes of the Blue Bulls and the Sharks.

Overall, there are no real surprises in the squad. We all knew that Adi Jacobs would be De Villiers’s first-choice centre and it will be a serious test for the Sharks man. He has never started a Test match in New Zealand or Australia and it could make or break his Springbok career. I don’t think he is the best outside centre in the country, but with Jaque Fourie injured and Waylon Murray out of form, there isn’t really plenty to choose from in the No.13 position.

I’m glad Ryan Kankowski has retained his place in the squad – despite taking a big knock against the Azzurri – and in this case Danie Rossouw misses out.

There is no doubt that the Springboks have an opportunity to go over there now and finally win a Test in New Zealand. World Cup winners like John Smit, Victor Matfield, Butch James and Jean de Villiers have never won a Test match in NZ – they want to tick that box now and rightly so.

South African rugby is on a high, they have a new coach and a new philosophy, whilst the All Blacks seem to be in a bit of disarray at the minute. Word from New Zealand is that they are pretty worried over there. They seem to be losing players to Europe on a weekly basis and now Richie McCaw is out injured and Ali Williams is in doubt, too. They certainly don’t have the depth that we do right now.

So, yes, all in all the signs are there and the All Blacks are ripe for a beating.

Simple, right? Not quite I’m afraid…

Winning over there remains a massive mountain to climb – why else do you think we’ve never won there since 1998?! How many times should the Boks have won over there in the past and how many times did they lose there in the last minute under Jake White between 2004 and 2007?

In the past, the Springboks would go to New Zealand trying to dominate them up front and “squeeze the life of out of them”, but now, for the first time, we’re heading to the Land of the Long White Cloud trying to beat the Kiwis at their own game.

They don’t like it when we front up to them, but with De Villiers’s new philosophy we could leave ourselves exposed a bit. Remember, New Zealand have been playing like this for the last 20 years, we’ve been trying this ‘new game’ for two months.

New Zealand think they ‘owe us’ after the World Cup. They’re still moaning about losing to France in the quarterfinals and they would want to beat us to prove that they are the best team in the world. Remember how Sean Fitzpatrick’s All Blacks came to SA in 1996 – a year after the ’95 World Cup – and beat us on our soil in a Test series?

Remember, too, all the history and traditions between the All Blacks and the Springboks. Like we raise ourselves when we play them, they also raise themselves when it comes to facing the Springboks – especially at home.

Australia, on the other hand, are more vulnerable. Like us, they have a new coach who is trying to impose a new way of thinking. For so long Australia played a structured game – first under Rod Macqueen and then under Eddie Jones – but now Deans is trying to get the players to think for themselves, like the Crusaders have done so successfully in Super Rugby.

By the end of the year, the Wallabies will be back amongst the top three nations in the world, but – and like with us – it will take time to refine their game and achieve the immediate results.

To expect the Springboks to simply fly off to New Zealand and beat the All Blacks on successive weekends is a very unfair expectation on Peter de Villiers. Nick Mallett won there just once in three years and Jake White didn’t win one match in New Zealand in eight starts. Why should De Villiers now, after three matches against Wales and Italy, pitch and beat the Kiwis in their own backyard in his first overseas Test? It’s ludicrous!

Yes, it is a great opportunity for the Springboks to win over there, but a loss to New Zealand should not be seen as a failure. What makes the current situation even more unrealistic is that the same people expecting De Villiers to win in NZ are the same people – both the media and the public – that initially condemned his appointment.

Instead of unreleastic expectations and wild predictions based on hearsay, people in South African rugby should rather understand that the 2008 Tri-Nations is just another stepping stone for De Villiers – judge him on a proper run as Springbok coach, not two Test matches in New Zealand against an All Blacks side with everything in the world to prove.

Until next week,
Fleckie

* Email Fleckie at rugby365@365digital.co.za with any comments ahead of the Tri-Nations.

* Fleckie’s ‘Last Word’ will appear weekly on rugby365.com and iafrica.com, so log on next week for more exclusive views from him!