Varsity Cup play-off permutations: How former champs could miss out
SPOTLIGHT: UCT or Shimlas could find themselves surplus to Varsity Cup play-off requirements in the coming weeks, while CUT face a fight to avoid automatic relegation.
Maties made a statement in the big derby staged at the University of Cape Town on Monday, beating the 2025 champions 34-7 and boosting their chances of qualifying for the play-offs.
Elsewhere, UJ continued their good form when they beat Shimlas 29-17 in Johannesburg, while the NWU Eagles claimed a crucial 30-22 win against Tuks in Potchefstroom.
Emeris edged CUT 26-24 in a hard-fought battle in Durban – and this result may well decide which of these teams is automatically relegated to the Varsity Shield at the end of the campaign.
With two rounds of the Varsity Cup league phase remaining, Rugby365 takes a closer look at the semifinal and relegation permutations.
TOP TWO FAVOURITES
Last year’s play-off race was particularly tight, and in the end, the NWU Eagles missed out on qualifying for the semifinals by a single log point.
This season, UJ has emerged as a genuine play-off contender, and as many as six teams are now fighting for four play-off spots.
At this stage, Tuks and the Eagles are on track to finish in the top two and host a semifinal.
The big question is who will go on to finish in pole position and potentially host the tournament decider?
Tuks will expect to claim a bonus-point win when they host Emeris in Pretoria next week, as the Durban-based side were only recently promoted to the Varsity Cup, and have won one match to date.
Thereafter, Tuks will finish their league campaign at UJ, and the result of that game may determine whether Dewey Swartbooi’s charges finish in first or second place.
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🏉👏🏽 Spotted the gap from miles away. What an angle from Mnelisi Gamede who cruises through for the Orange Army!
Watch highlight of @UJ_Sport beating the Shimlas here – https://t.co/3oMmZT68Jw#RugbyThatRocks #WhosNXT pic.twitter.com/u4c2Efj0YH
— Varsity Cup (@varsitycup) March 17, 2026
The Eagles face a tougher road to the play-offs, with an away fixture at Maties followed by a home clash against UCT.
If the Eagles manage to accumulate five or more log points, they should finish in the top two.
UJ could do the Eagles a favour by beating Tuks in the final round, but Burger van der Westhuizen’s side will keep their destiny in their own hands if they down Maties and UCT.
The Varsity Cup has introduced several law variations in 2026, as well as a new tie-breaker mechanism – with ‘tries scored’ serving as the primary tie-breaker whenever two or more teams have an equal number of log points.
It will be interesting to see how this influences the pecking order in terms of the top four qualifiers as well as the scrap to avoid automatic relegation.
At this stage, the Eagles have scored the most tries (34) while Tuks are ranked second in this department (31).
FOUR DOESN’T FIT INTO TWO
Maties, UJ, Ikeys and Shimlas are set for an almighty scrap over the next fortnight.
Two of these teams are likely to progress to the play-offs, while the other two may be surplus to requirements.
At this stage, UCT – the 2025 champions – and Shimlas – who won the tournament in 2024 – are ranked fifth and sixth respectively, and have work to do if they are going to qualify for the knockouts.
Of these four contenders, Maties are the best placed to advance, with a home fixture against the Eagles to come, followed by a trip to CUT – who are currently last in the standings.
UJ have been the most-improved team on show in 2026. After narrowly avoiding relegation in 2025, they’ve won three out of five this season – claiming the big scalps of NWU and Shimlas – and are currently in fourth place.
UJ should beat CUT in the next round and strengthen their current position, but the last round battle against Tuks in Johannesburg may be something of a knockout match.
UJ have proved that they have what it takes to beat the bigger teams, and even if they claim a losing bonus or two in Pretoria, they will increase their chances of finishing in the top four.
Shimlas and UCT will meet in Bloemfontein next week in a do-or-die fixture. Ikeys (15 points) are currently fifth in the standings, while Shimlas (11) are in sixth place.
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FULL TIME and @MatiesSport get their revenge and wrap up the Cape derby in emphatic fashion. Mckyle Volmoer on the overlap puts the cherry on top for the Maroon Machine.
FNB UCT 7-34 FNB Maties #RugbyThatRocks brought to you by FNB, Steers, Suzuki and SportPesa SA. pic.twitter.com/A0IlmB5T4N
— Varsity Cup (@varsitycup) March 16, 2026
If Shimlas come through this game with four or five log points, they may crack on to claim five more against Emeris in their final fixture, and move ahead of the Ikeys in the standings. They may need other results to go their way to finish ahead of UJ, though.
UCT have to win their remaining matches against Shimlas and the Eagles – which will be staged in Bloem and Potch respectively.
It’s interesting to note that UCT (30) and Shimlas (30) have scored more tries than UJ (24) to date.
That tally may well influence the tactics of the respective teams in the final rounds, knowing that tries scored will be the primary tie-breaker, and may well determine who qualifies for the play-offs.
FACING THE DROP
It seems likely that Emeris, as well as CUT, will be in the firing line at the end of the campaign.
The recent battle between the teams in Durban was effectively a knockout game, and Emeris’ win allowed them to move ahead of CUT in the standings.
Only two log points separate the teams with two rounds to play, but Emeris appear to have the advantage.
Most will expect Emeris to lose their remaining fixtures against Tuks (away) and Shimlas (home), and for CUT to go down in home fixtures against UJ and Maties.
Emeris could finish seventh in the standings and, as a result, face the second-best team in the Varsity Shield in a promotion-relegation play-off.
If CUT finish eighth, they will be automatically relegated.
It’s possible that Emeris or CUT may claim an upset victory in the coming weeks. At the very least, both should be aiming to secure as many bonus points as possible from the remaining fixtures.
CUT have accumulated four bonus points over the past five rounds, while Emeris have only earned two.
The Bloemfontein-based side also boasts a higher try-tally (21) than the newcomers (19).
Both sets of coaches will need to keep an eye on that, as a seventh or eighth-place finish may well be determined by how many tries each team has scored over the course of the campaign.
Both teams will have every reason to approach the remaining fixtures with an attacking mindset.
